Oklahoma vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

See our expert college football prediction as Oklahoma and Tennessee face off in Week 10 — who wins, why, and what to expect in this marquee matchup.

Oklahoma vs. Tennessee prediction 2025 / Alan Poizner-Imagn Images

What could end up being effectively a College Football Playoff elimination game kicks off under the lights as No. 14 Tennessee welcomes No. 18 Oklahoma, each looking to avoid a costly third loss as the 2025 season moves into consequential November football in the SEC.

Tennessee has more breathing room, but not much more, sitting at 6-2 overall with a 3-2 mark in SEC competition on the back of potentially-costly losses to playoff contenders Alabama and Georgia.

Oklahoma dropped its second game of the season and fell to 2-2 in conference play after a loss at home to Ole Miss heading into one of the most brutal schedules in the country the rest of the way.

What happens here could play a role in painting the eventual picture of the College Football Playoff, at least concerning who the SEC is able, and unable, to fit into the 12-team field going forward.

Oklahoma vs. Tennessee matchups: What to watch

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1. Battle at the line of scrimmage

Tennessee’s pass rush, once among the nation’s best, has declined recently with just one sack over the last two games, but they could find some angles against OU’s protection of quarterback John Mateer.

Despite a strong start to the season, Mateer’s play has declined since a midseason hand injury, and he tends to hold onto the football too long, needlessly extending plays and increasing exposure to opposing pass rushers.

That could create opportunities for the Vols to apply enough pressure to force the Sooners into third-and-long situations. Their ability to win battles up front will be key in compensating for the defense’s weaknesses further downfield when the ball is in the air.

2. Defensive battle

Oklahoma boasts the fifth-best defense nationally, but Tennessee can challenge them by establishing a consistent running game to confuse the front seven alignment, and keep them out of obvious pass-rush situations. 

This balance would allow Tennessee’s quarterback Joey Aguilar to capitalize by escaping the near-constant pressure OU’s rushers can provide, and make explosive plays downfield. 

Tennessee’s ability to run the ball effectively -- it averages nearly 5 yards per carry, but Oklahoma is 5th in run defense allowing 2.5 on average -- will be key to controlling the pace and limiting the Sooners’ game-ruining defensive impact.​

3. Red zone efficiency

Oklahoma is 1 of 3 teams in FBS who are a perfect 100 percent in the red zone offensively, scoring on all 26 trips, and 19 of those possessions have resulted in touchdowns, over 73 percent success in that phase.

Tennessee is one of college football’s worst-performing red zone defenses, allowing opponents to score points 93.1 percent of the time, with 27 of those 29 chances resulting in touchdowns for the other team.

Limiting Oklahoma’s scoring inside the red zone would maximize Tennessee’s chances of winning what is effectively a CFP elimination game for both programs.​

Who is favored?

Tennessee is a 2.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -152 and for Oklahoma at +128 to win outright.

Oklahoma vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins?

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A potent Tennessee offense, and a stifling Oklahoma defense. An inconsistent Tennessee defense, and a lackluster Oklahoma offense.

Whatever weaknesses the Vols have defensively, they have been almost as dominant as the Sooners when it comes to harassing quarterbacks, ranking 7th in FBS, compared to OU’s lofty No. 2 ranking in total sacks recorded. And Tennessee is clearly the more dominant offensive side in this matchup.

If the Volunteers can keep the Sooner offense out of the red zone and repel what has been an ugly Oklahoma run game, they should have enough to tilt this in their favor.

College Football HQ picks...

• Tennessee wins 30-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More: Oklahoma vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert model

How to watch Oklahoma vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Nov. 1
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Where: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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