Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats prediction: Who wins, and why?

An early SEC football opener kicks off on Saturday as No. 21 Ole Miss hits the road against unranked Kentucky in college football’s Week 2 action. Here is what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

This turned out to be one of the more consequential games in the SEC all last season, when the Wildcats went into Oxford and stunned the Rebels, ruining their perfect record.

And played a role in keeping Ole Miss out of the College Football Playoff, as it turned out, and they could play another role as spoiler in 2025 when all is said and done.

Mark Stoops is the SEC’s longest-tenured coach, but is just 28-62 against conference teams in that time, while Lane Kiffin is 25-16 against league foes at Ole Miss.

Now, the self-proclaimed Portal King will have his reign challenged by an active offseason that saw his program have to replace a pile of critical starters on both sides of the ball, including quarterback Jaxson Dart, after winning 10 games a year ago.

What can we expect as the Rebels and Wildcats face off in the SEC opener?

Here’s what you should watch for as Ole Miss and Kentucky meet in this Week 2 college football clash, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction: What to watch for

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky football prediction 2025 — Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

1. At the line

Ole Miss didn’t have any issue dominating Georgia State in last week’s opener, but head coach Lane Kiffin was less than enthused with the performance of his offensive line.

Although the unit allowed just one sack of quarterback Austin Simmons, it still wavered against pressure at other points in the game, including some heavy pressure from its FCS counterpart, especially along Simmons’ blind side.

The Rebels’ line was something of a concern coming into the season, as Kiffin and his coaches shuffled personnel during camp as they dealt with injuries, and the feeling is that the unit is still a work in progress.

That could develop into an issue against a Kentucky front that looks like a team strength and was called one of the nation’s best by Pro Football Focus last week.

The group performed well against Toledo in the opener, recording three sacks and holding the Rockets’ run game to just 50 total yards on 29 attempts for a meager 2 yard per carry average.

Simmons is a hugely-promising player at the quarterback position, but this game could end up being closer than he expects if the protection doesn’t work out.

2. On the ground

In case their quarterbacks aren’t able to push the ball downfield early on, both the Rebels and Wildcats should be able to rely on their ground attacks.

Dante Dowdell, who played for Oregon and Nebraska in his career, joined Kentucky this offseason, and had a good debut by rushing for 129 yards, his first triple-digit outing.

That effort was capped off by a critical 79-yard touchdown late in a 26-14 victory over Toledo to help secure UK’s season-opener.

Kewan Lacy, a transfer to Ole Miss from Missouri, had 108 yards and three touchdowns in his first game for the program.

Both could emerge as reliable backstops moving the ball for their respective teams in the event they struggle opening up their downfield games.

3. QB battle

Advantage, Ole Miss. At least based on the very early production from both.

Simmons had an easier time of it, but amassed 341 yards in the air while completing 20 of 31 passes, a 64.5 percent completion mark, with 3 touchdown passes.

But he also had 2 interceptions, and 3 other turnover-worthy throws in the process, according to Pro Football Focus calculations.

Zach Calzada could’ve done more in his Kentucky debut, finishing with just 83 yards passing on 10 completions with no touchdowns and an interception.

UK averaged just 4.6 yards per play against Toledo, while Ole Miss posted 8.9 yards per snap in its Week 1 victory.

Calzada might have the better protection after the line showed off in the run game a week ago, but Simmons should have better receivers at his disposal.

What the analytics say

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky football game prediction 2025 — Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Most football analytical models expect the Rebels to handle the Wildcats this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

That model favors the road team by a decent margin at Kroger Field.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game in the majority 83.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner in the remaining 16.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 11.5 points better than Kentucky on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

The books predictably side with the Rebels over the Wildcats in the SEC opener.

Ole Miss is an 8.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the matchup.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -330 and for Kentucky at +260 to win outright.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction: Who wins?

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats football game prediction 2025 — Scott Utterback/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There’s something about the Ole Miss game that brings out some of the best in Kentucky’s team when this series comes around every year.

Or at least for the last four years, during which time every game between these two schools has been decided by three points or less.

Kentucky presents a formidable challenge on both lines of scrimmage for the Rebels to counter, on offense pushing tacklers aside to establish the run, and on defense when generating what looks like a credible threat against opposing quarterbacks.

Simmons will feel some heat from the Wildcats’ pass rush from the start, and that could affect his accuracy when testing medium and long vertical plays, but the Rebels still have a downfield threat that looks better than what UK is putting on the field right now.

College Football HQ picks...

Ole Miss wins 23-17
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the under

More... Ole Miss vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Kentucky

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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