Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction by ESPN football computer

The 2025 edition of the Egg Bowl rivalry finds Ole Miss facing off against Mississippi State under a cloud of rumors that Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin is on the way out.

Kiffin has brought Ole Miss to the verge of its first College Football Playoff, but instead of focusing on that achievement, the talk is around whether its coach will be at LSU or Florida next season.

For now, Kiffin will be on the Rebel sideline against their arch-rival, a Bulldogs squad that is 1-6 in SEC competition, but a decision on his future will come the day after this game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Egg Bowl 2025: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction

As expected, the model is siding strongly with the Rebels over the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss came out the winner in the vast majority 78.4 percent of the computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Mississippi State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 21.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

When counting through the 20,000 simulations, Ole Miss is projected to be 8.5 points better than Mississippi State on the same field, according to the latest model forecasts.

That would be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread, as they are listed as 7.5 point favorites over the Bulldogs, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 78.3 percent of all games and hit 42 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

All odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks