Oregon vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins, and why?

One of college football’s three games involving ranked teams on the same field kicks off on Saturday, as No. 3 Oregon welcomes No. 7 Indiana. Here is what you should be watching for in the matchup, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

Indiana finds itself poised to change one of the lingering narratives around itself despite its newfound success under head coach Curt Cignetti.

That narrative includes the belief that the Hoosiers can’t beat high-quality ranked teams on the road, after losses at Ohio State last season and at Notre Dame in the first-round of the College Football Playoff in the postseason.

Now comes an opportunity to either convince the doubters, or to give them more ammunition, as the Hoosiers line up against the third-ranked, reigning Big Ten champions.

Oregon pulled off a signature double-overtime victory at Penn State in a battle of top 10 ranked teams a couple weeks ago, but that triumph was diminished after the Nittany Lions fell out of the poll following their loss at UCLA.

Oregon vs. Indiana prediction: What to watch

Oregon vs. Indiana football game prediction 2025 — Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Attack the deep field

One of Indiana’s most pronounced struggles on an otherwise-talented pass defense so far has come on the back end of the secondary unit, in particular at times the play of its safeties, who have been bested by some of the more agile receivers it’s played against.

Iowa’s famously-unproductive downfield offense didn’t pose too great a threat against Indiana’s back seven the last time out, but Oregon’s receiving corps should prove far more damaging and could exploit some of the Hoosiers’ occasional alignment issues.

2. Strength vs. Strength

Indiana comes into this weekend playing college football’s fifth-best overall offense, averaging over 538 total yards per game, but it faces a stiff test against an Oregon air defense that is the third-most productive in the country, allowing just 123 yards.

Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza pilots an offense that is sixth in FBS in both points scored and rushing production, and is capable of sustaining long drives.

Oregon presents a formidable combination of depth, versatility, and physicality that allows the defense to mix up its coverages and force quarterbacks to second-guess their every decision when testing their mid-range and deeper throwing patterns.

3. At the line

Indiana’s offensive line has been elite overall, allowing just four sacks this season, but has shown some protection weaknesses at times this year that has temporarily disrupted its otherwise-efficient passing attack.

But we still don’t know how well the Hoosiers’ line will hold up against higher-caliber competition, and Oregon’s stout front seven likes to bring the blitz and overpower blockers to throw the quarterback out of rhythm.

Iowa gave Indiana’s linemen a preview with a blitz-heavy approach the last time out, and the unit had some questionable moments maintaining Mendoza’s pocket integrity at times in what was a very close game.

Oregon has more bodies to create even more havoc, and any repeat of that formula could spell trouble for the Hoosiers’ ability to create and sustain its momentum on offense on the road.

Who is favored?

Oregon is a 7.5 point favorite against Indiana at home, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -275 and for Indiana at +225 to win outright.

Oregon vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins?

Indiana was determined about patching up its offensive line and in repairing its rushing offense after it struggled in the trenches against ranked teams last season.

So far, the returns have proven successful, and quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been a revelation, giving the Hoosiers a vital boost that this offense will need in order to consistently threaten the Oregon defense in a game of this magnitude.

It just might be enough to get Indiana closer than it’s been in a venue of this importance, but Oregon plays one of the nation’s most efficient overall defenses, thriving on takeaways on the back end and generating constant pressure up front.

College Football HQ picks...

Oregon wins 34-24
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Oregon vs. Indiana score prediction by expert model

How to watch Oregon vs. Indiana

When: Sat., Oct. 11
Where: Oregon

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network