Oregon vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model

Oregon and Indiana square off in a battle of ranked undefeated Big Ten hopefuls as college football’s Week 7 action gets underway on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Both these teams were idle last weekend, and each are coming off important road victories heading into this clash of the unbeatens.

Oregon passed a crucial test at Happy Valley two weeks ago by taking out Penn State in double overtime in what was then also a game between top 10 ranked opponents.

Indiana owns a dominant 63-10 win over a still-ranked Illinois team and edged out Iowa on the road last time out in a close game that saw Fernando Mendoza connect with Elijah Sarratt on a critical late touchdown play.

Despite the Hoosiers’ rise to prominence over the last season-plus, there is still a narrative around the program that it can’t stack up with college football’s best after losses at Ohio State and Notre Dame a year ago, the latter in the playoff.

Now, they face another important test away from home, fielding an offense that ranks 5th in the country in scoring and in rushing output, and with plenty to prove.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Ducks welcome the Hoosiers in this Big Ten battle?

For that, let’s turn to the most popular prediction models to get a picture of how exactly Oregon and Indiana compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Who is favored?

Oregon is a 7.5 point favorite at home against Indiana, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -315 and for Indiana at +250 to win outright.

Oregon vs. Indiana implied score

The game’s implied score based on the current betting market suggests the Ducks will hold off the Hoosiers at home, but it will be the second-closest game they’ve played this year.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Oregon will defeat Indiana by a projected score of 31 to 24, a 7-point margin for the Ducks.

The books were proven correct in 75.3 percent of their straight-up predictions last weekend, and came out on the right side in 56.7 percent of their picks against the spread.

SP+ score prediction

As might be expected, the SP+ prediction model is favoring the Ducks over the Hoosiers at home, but by a margin that might leave the Autzen faithful a little nervous.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Indiana outright by a projected score of 30 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.2 points.

The model gives the Ducks a solid 65 percent chance of victory over the Hoosiers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 144-152 against the spread with a 48.6 win percentage. Last week, it went 25-25 (50%) against the spread.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

What kind of margin does the index see in this matchup?

Oregon is a solid favorite over Indiana when it comes to guessing the game outright, coming out ahead in 69.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Hoosiers as the presumptive winner in the remaining 30.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Oregon is projected to be just 5 points better than Indiana on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 38 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

How to pick the game

Oregon’s defense, particularly its secondary, has excelled at limiting explosive plays, which could challenge Indiana’s high-powered, balanced offense.

However, Indiana’s defense gets a boost with top cornerback D’Angelo Ponds returning from injury, which could go a long way in potentially limiting Oregon’s deep threats.

Turnovers and red zone efficiency are expected to be key. Both teams are undefeated, making this a high-stakes matchup with playoff implications.

If you’re using these predictions to bet on the game, you should take...

Indiana +7.5
Oregon to win -315
Bet under 55.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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