Penn State vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model

Back during the preseason, this was supposed to be one of the marquee games of the late regular season, but instead the matchup between Indiana and Penn State almost seems an afterthought.

Penn State was the No. 2 team in the preseason but sustained a whole-program collapse that resulted in James Franklin being fired and is now winless in five games against Big Ten foes.

Conversely, the Hoosiers are undefeated and seem prime for a run not just at the Big Ten title, but are basically a sure thing for the College Football Playoff.

What do the analytics predict as the Hoosiers take their perfect record against the Nittany Lions?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Indiana compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Penn State vs. Indiana score prediction

As expected, the model is siding strongly with the Hoosiers and by a double-digit margin.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Indiana by a projected score of 32 to 21 and will win the game by an expected margin of 12 points in the process.

That would be a close one for the Hoosiers, who come into this weekend leading all college football teams with a 31 point average margin of victory in games.

The model gives Indiana a solid 77 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets like the Hoosiers by more than two touchdowns against the Nittany Lions.

Indiana is a 14.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Indiana at -750 and for Penn State at +530 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Indiana arrives undefeated and riding high, boasting one of the nation’s top offenses and a defense that has repeatedly clipped opponents.

Penn State, by contrast, has hit a rough patch, losing five straight and showing cracks in its passing game and defensive consistency.

Expect Indiana to flow early with pace and depth, forcing Penn State to chase. Being at home should help keep this closer, but the Hoosiers are on a roll that is hard to stop right now.

Penn State +14.5
Hoosiers to win -750
Take the under

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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