Penn State vs. Oregon prediction for Big Ten Championship Game: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Penn State vs. Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game by a football model that simulates games.
Penn State vs. Oregon football prediction for the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game
Penn State vs. Oregon football prediction for the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State and Oregon face off in the Big Ten Championship Game with a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Oregon remains the last undefeated team in the FBS ranks this season and would clinch the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round bye by winning the conference title in its first year in the Big Ten.

Penn State won a spot in this matchup despite losing to Ohio State, given the Buckeyes’ surprise loss against Michigan, and while a win against Oregon would likely secure a first-round bye, a loss should result in a home game in the first round.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Penn State vs. Oregon predictions

Something of a surprise, as the models actually favor the Nittany Lions over the Ducks to win the Big Ten championship.

Penn State emerged as the narrow favorite in the game, coming out on top in a majority 53.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Oregon as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Nittany Lions came out ahead in 10,740 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Ducks edged out Penn State in the other 9,260 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Penn State is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Oregon on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would constitute an upset for the Nittany Lions.

That’s because Oregon is a 3.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -160 and for Penn State at +132 to win outright.

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What the bettors say

A big majority of bettors expect the Ducks to take care of business against the Nittany Lions, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 71 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 29 percent of wagers project Penn State will either win the game outright in an upset or keep the final margin to a field goal or less in a loss.

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Penn State vs. Oregon future projections

Oregon has a 100 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

So there’s no drama around the Ducks making the 12-team field, but a loss would drop the team outside the No. 1 overall seed in the forthcoming bracket.

Likewise for Penn State, which has a 99.6 percent shot to make the playoff, so we should see this team in the race for the national championship regardless of what happens here.

Notably, the model forecasts the Nittany Lions will win 11.5 games, indicating that the index doesn’t expect the team will win again wherever it lands in the postseason.

Oregon is expected to win 12.5 games, according to the models, implying they will win one more game after the Big Ten title appearance once they make the playoff.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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College Football Playoff rankings for Week 15

  1. Oregon
  2. Texas
  3. Penn State
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Georgia
  6. Ohio State
  7. Tennessee
  8. SMU
  9. Indiana
  10. Boise State
  11. Alabama
  12. Miami
  13. Ole Miss
  14. South Carolina
  15. Arizona State
  16. Iowa State
  17. Clemson
  18. BYU
  19. Missouri
  20. UNLV
  21. Illinois
  22. Syracuse
  23. Colorado
  24. Army
  25. Memphis

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What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch Penn State vs. Oregon

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Indianapolis, Ind.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 5 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Published
James Parks
JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.