Rece Davis picks winner of USC-Illinois on Saturday

USC favored to beat Illinois as injuries and offensive firepower shape Saturday’s matchup.

College football analyst Rece Davis selected the USC Trojans to win this weekend against the Illinois Fighting Illini. | GREG SWIERCZ / USA TODAY NETWORK

A high-stakes Big Ten matchup awaits this weekend in Champaign as the USC Trojans head east to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Trojans enter at 4-0 with one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, while the Illini look to regroup after a humbling loss at Indiana that exposed holes on both sides of the ball.

The contrast between USC’s surge and Illinois’ struggles has set the stage for one of Saturday’s most telling games. For the Trojans, it’s a chance to prove they can handle the physical style of Big Ten play. For Illinois, it’s a chance to restore confidence and steady momentum against a top-tier opponent.

Rece Davis, host of the College GameDay Podcast, weighed in on Thursday. He highlighted Illinois’ injuries in the secondary and USC’s efficiency as deciding factors, while acknowledging the challenge of an early 9 a.m. Pacific kickoff for the visitors.

Davis Explains His Pick For USC Over Illinois

Davis admitted this was not an easy choice, pointing to Illinois’ battered secondary and questions in the trenches after a 63-10 defeat at Indiana. “Boy, it’s strange to watch what happened to Illinois, especially with the injuries they’ve had in the secondary, and think, oh, they’ll just turn it around next week,” Davis said. He noted Illinois’ best defensive back, Xavier Scott, is out for the season, leaving the Illini vulnerable to USC’s passing attack.

Davis added that USC’s struggles against Big Ten opponents last season made this game an important checkpoint. “This is a much more fascinating test for USC because their Big Ten mettle failed last year,” Davis said.

USC football head coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans are off to a hot 4-0 start to the 2025 college football season. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

“They failed against Minnesota. They failed against Maryland. USC did not show they could compete in the trenches in the Big Ten.” Still, he leaned on what he saw most recently from Illinois and concluded that the Trojans will have too much firepower. “I think USC goes in and figures out a way to have breakfast in Champaign,” Davis said.

The ESPN Football Power Index projection seemed to back him up, giving USC a 72.9 percent chance of winning. Davis joked about its accuracy but admitted the number reinforced his confidence in the Trojans. “It just feels like a USC win to me,” Davis said.

Why The Matchup Carries Weight For Both Teams

While USC boasts one of the country’s most balanced offenses, averaging 583.8 yards and 52.5 points per game, Illinois is ranked outside the top 100 nationally in total offense and has struggled to run the ball effectively. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has nine touchdown passes without an interception, but the Illini offensive line has given up 16 sacks through four games, including seven last week. That protection issue could be costly against a USC defense tied for the Big Ten lead in sacks.

On the other side, quarterback Jayden Maiava has kept USC rolling with 1,223 passing yards and nine touchdowns while completing more than 70 percent of his throws. Running back Waymond Jordan has added 443 rushing yards, while receiver Makai Lemon has 438 yards and three touchdowns. Combined with a red zone defense that ranks second nationally, USC has leaned on both sides of the ball to remain undefeated.

Southern California football quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) has passed for 1,223 yards and nine touchdowns over the Trojans' first four games. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Davis ultimately summed up his reasoning with a cautious but firm stance. “This feels like one of those games that everybody in the world is going to pick USC, and I should zag when everybody’s zigging and take Illinois, but I can’t do it. So I’m going to go USC and offer this: whether you think USC is good or not, you’re going to know soon.”

The Trojans will visit Illinois on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.