Rece Davis picks Tennessee-Alabama winner on Saturday

Confident pick from Rece Davis backs Alabama at home, citing coverage gains, clean QB play, and turnovers.

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis predicts the Alabama Crimson Tide will win over the Tennessee Volunteers this weekend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The “Third Saturday in October” carries a familiar drumbeat, and this week it comes with a clear voice from ESPN’s College GameDay podcast. On Wednesday, college football analyst Rece Davis said he is siding with Alabama against Tennessee. The conversation with cohost Pete Thamel touched on recent history, defensive trends, and pressure on the quarterback, then landed on a confident call for the home team.

Davis framed it as a high-scoring clash. He credited Alabama’s improvement in coverage while acknowledging that run fits have sprung leaks at times. He pointed to freshman cornerback Dijon Lee Jr. as an emerging piece on the back end, and he circled the need to get receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams involved against a Tennessee defense that challenges in man coverage. He also spotlighted Ty Simpson’s ball security as a hinge point in a game where short fields could decide momentum.

“I’m going to take Alabama, too. I think this is going to be a wild, high-scoring game. Alabama still hasn’t solved all of its problems in rush defense. Though they did a really good job against Ahmad Hardy, they still gave up some chunk plays against Missouri. Alabama’s pass defense, as you said, has been very good. And I’m going to tell you, this freshman Dijon Lee Jr., he’s got NFL written all over him in a couple years. He’s been terrific, and he will be challenged by the downfield passing attack that Tennessee has.

"I think Alabama gets Ryan Williams going; he didn’t have anything. I think they get Germie Bernard going, because I think Tennessee likes to challenge you and play a little bit of man. The big deal is going to be, can they get pressure on Ty Simpson? If they can and force some mistakes, which he has not been prone to do, it will help the Vols’ cause greatly. But I’m going to go with Alabama at home winning the game.”

Rece Davis’ Alabama Pick Emphasizes Coverage Strength, Turnover Avoidance

Davis’ reasoning pulled together what Alabama has done well over the last month and where the matchup tilts. The secondary has settled, which gives Alabama flexibility to live in split-safety looks without conceding space downfield. That is central against a Tennessee passing game that pushes vertically and attacks one-on-one.

Naming freshman cornerback Dijon Lee Jr. as a difference-maker underscored an expectation that Alabama can win enough isolated snaps at corner to survive Tennessee’s tempo and spacing.

Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Dijon Lee Jr. (5), a former five-star recruit, has impressed early in his freshman season. | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

He also pushed the conversation toward explosives and ball security. Ty Simpson’s interception avoidance and rhythm throws are a counter to Tennessee’s habit of sending pressure. If Alabama keeps the turnover count low, the field position math becomes favorable when combined with a home crowd that has rattled opponents this fall.

On the other side, Davis acknowledged Alabama’s rush defense has not erased everything on tape, using Ahmad Hardy’s chunk gains for Missouri as an example, which leaves room for Tennessee to stay balanced if early downs cooperate. That balance is what can pry open the deep shots that define the Volunteers’ identity.

Tennessee’s Surge And Alabama’s Targets In Space

The broader picture in the preview material frames a game that leans offense. Tennessee arrives with a fast start tendency and a quarterback, Joey Aguilar, who keeps drives alive with poised decisions. The Volunteers have shown they can stress opponents vertically and generate sacks and takeaways to flip possessions. Even with injuries in the secondary, the front’s havoc has kept Tennessee in control late.

Alabama answers with an offense that has tracked upward since Week 1. Simpson’s efficiency and decision-making have paired with Ryan Grubb’s structure to create steady scoring. The note to feature Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard is a tactical tell. Tennessee’s willingness to play man means Alabama can hunt matchups for quick-hitting throws, motion, and crossers that let its receivers win in space.

Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Isaiah Horton (1), along with teammates Germie Bernard (5) and Ryan Williams (2), have combined to catch 70 passes for 1,018 yards and 12 touchdowns. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

If those early touches force lighter boxes, Alabama can protect leads and limit the number of possessions, which matters in games where either side can score quickly. Davis’ pick, then, is less about a single mismatch and more about stacking small edges at home, in coverage, and in turnover margin.

Alabama will host Tennessee on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.