Rece Davis picks winner of USC-Notre Dame matchup

Rece Davis picked Notre Dame to defeat USC, citing turnovers, discipline, and defensive improvement as deciding factors.

ESPN's Rece Davis is taking the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win against the USC Trojans. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

On Wednesday’s episode of ESPN’s College GameDay podcast, college football analyst Rece Davis made his pick for one of the sport’s most historic rivalries. Davis sided with No. 13 Notre Dame to defeat No. 20 USC, emphasizing how turnovers could again determine the outcome. His call reflected both the recent history between these programs and the margins that often define their meetings.

“I think it’s going to be a great game, too. I’m going to take Notre Dame,” Davis said. “A big thing in this game is going to be turnovers. In the Riley–Freeman era, Notre Dame does have an edge in turnover margin, really amplified the last two meetings. Irish lead the turnover margin 7–2. That’s bad. This is worse: they’ve outscored USC 42–7 in points off turnovers.”

The rivalry enters its 96th meeting with both teams ranked, renewing a century-old series that has produced memorable moments from the “Bush Push” to last year’s Irish rout in South Bend. Notre Dame holds a 52–37–5 advantage all time, including six straight home wins over the Trojans.

Davis Points To Takeaways And Weather As Decisive Factors

Davis credited Notre Dame’s defensive opportunism as the foundation of his pick. “They had two pick-sixes last year and a fumble return for a touchdown in the last couple of games,” he said. He added that USC will “need something similar to pull this game out,” referring to the kind of late heroics that defined the rivalry two decades ago.

Notre Dame has leaned on an improving defense, ranking eighth nationally in turnover margin at +6. That opportunism has been key during a four-game winning streak. USC, meanwhile, remains one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses, averaging 552.3 yards per game and ranking second nationally in total offense.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jadarian Price (24) and teammate Jeremiyah Love have combined for 952 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 163 carries. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrown for 1,852 yards with 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions, while wide receiver Makai Lemon continues to pace the Trojans with 682 yards and six scores.

Still, Davis cautioned against the Trojans’ discipline issues, noting how penalties and mistakes could undermine their efficiency. USC ranks 112th in the FBS in penalty yards per game at 67.3, while Notre Dame averages just 50. “It looks like rain,” Davis said, suggesting weather could add another layer of unpredictability to an already volatile matchup.

Notre Dame’s Momentum Meets USC’s Explosive Offense

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr has guided a balanced attack averaging 465.5 yards per game. The Irish enter the weekend off a 36–7 win over North Carolina State, where Carr threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Jeremiyah Love added 86 rushing yards and two scores, while tight end Eli Raridon led all receivers with 109 yards.

USC’s latest victory, a 31–13 win over Michigan, showed the Trojans’ ability to dominate at the line of scrimmage. Maiava completed 25 of 32 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns, and running back King Miller rushed for 158 yards, the most allowed by Michigan this season.

Notre Dame offensive lineman Chris Terek (55), quarterback CJ Carr (13) and offensive lineman Joe Otting (64) and the Irish have reeled off four straight wins. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Both teams bring top-tier offensive units, but Notre Dame’s improvement in takeaways and situational defense may provide the edge Davis expects. The Irish allow just 20.8 points per game and rank 25th nationally against the run. USC counters with a defense that has yielded 21.3 points per contest but still struggles against the pass, ranking 102nd.

In Davis’s view, this matchup functions as an elimination game for Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. “They don’t have a lot of opportunities left on the schedule against high-level opponents,” he said. “This is a must-win for Notre Dame, and I say they come through and get it done.”

The Trojans and Fighting Irish will meet at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana, on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.