South Carolina vs. Missouri score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for South Carolina vs. Missouri in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Missouri Tigers score prediction 2025 | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

The latest prediction for South Carolina vs. Missouri in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores ahead of this SEC matchup.

Beau Pribula has been a revelation for Missouri after transferring in from Penn State at quarterback, completing 76.4 percent of his passes while throwing 7 touchdowns and running for another 3 scores as a bona fide dual threat at the position.

Another transfer, running back Ahmad Hardy, has been equally productive, leading the team with 462 rushing yards in three games, posting 8.1 yards per carry so far, and scoring 5 of the Tigers’ 11 touchdowns on the ground.

South Carolina is already down a game in SEC play and at 2-1 overall after a surprising 31-7 loss at home to now-ranked Vanderbilt last weekend, and in the process watched as quarterback LaNorris Sellers left that contest with a head injury after taking a big hit.

Sellers is questionable to appear against Missouri, and his presence would certainly help the Gamecocks’ offense, but sixth-year senior Luke Doty is on hand just in case, good for 64 percent of his throws but averaging just 5.3 yards per pass.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Gamecocks and Tigers meet on the same field in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how South Carolina and Missouri compare in this Week 4 college football game.

South Carolina vs. Missouri score prediction

As might be expected, this particular model is siding with the home team in this conference clash, and by a decent margin, too.

SP+ predicts that Missouri will defeat South Carolina outright in the game, and by a projected score of 32 to 18, winning by an expected margin of 13.7 points.

The model gives Mizzou a solid 80 percent chance of outright victory over the Cocks.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 70-75 against the spread with a 48.3 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The sports books also foresee the Tigers as being big favorites at home in their SEC opener against the Gamecocks.

Missouri is a 9.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Missouri at -330 and for South Carolina at +260 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Missouri -9.5
• Tigers to win -330
• Bet over 48.5 points

By doing so, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, the majority of whom expect Missouri will take care of South Carolina in this SEC debut.

Missouri is getting 61 percent of bets to defeat the Gamecocks by at least 10 points at home and cover the point spread to stay undefeated.

The other 39 percent of wagers project South Carolina will either pull off the upset on the road and avoid an 0-2 hole in SEC play, or keep the game under 10 points in a loss.

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Computer predictions

Most other analytical football models are siding with the Tigers over the Gamecocks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Missouri is a huge favorite over South Carolina overall, projected to win the game in the vast majority 80.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Gamecocks as the presumptive winner in the remaining 19.8 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the Tigers in the game?

After simulating the game 20,000 times, the computer projects that Missouri will be 9.5 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch South Carolina vs. Missouri

When: Sat., Sept. 20
Where: Missouri

Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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