Texas Tech vs. BYU prediction: Who wins, and why?

What happens between Texas Tech and BYU will go a considerable distance in helping determine who gets to play for the Big 12 championship, and consequently who will take part in the College Football Playoff, making this the most important game in the conference so far in 2025.

Texas Tech made huge investments in its defensive rotation last offseason and the results have been inspiring, emerging as one of the most productive and dominant units in school history, ranking 10th in FBS in total output and the best in the Big 12.

BYU has forced itself into the national championship conversation by starting 8-0 for the second-straight season, but is hoping to change the narrative after its late-season downturn a year ago. It’s been close so far, needing comeback efforts to get past Iowa State and Arizona.

BYU vs. Texas Tech: What to watch for

BYU vs. Texas Tech football game prediction — James Guillory-Imagn Images

1. Turnover margin

Both teams excel at generating and protecting the football, but this matchup may hinge on which team wins the turnover battle.

Texas Tech is second nationally in turnovers forced, while BYU ranks third in turnover margin with few giveaways.

If Texas Tech’s defense can force BYU into mistakes, especially in key field positions, it could swing momentum decisively.

2. Battle at the line

Texas Tech’s success this season has heavily relied on its improved defensive line, which is ranked top three nationally in major pass rush metrics and pressures.

BYU’s offensive line needs to handle this relentless pressure to give its passing game a chance, otherwise stalled drives and compressed scoring opportunities will result.

The Red Raiders have held opponents to under three yards per carry for most of the season, so BYU’s line must win at the point of attack to sustain drives.

3. On the ground

BYU’s offense prioritizes the run, often handing off as much as 40 times per game, and the Cougars average well over 200 rushing yards per game.

Their methodical style is built to slow the game's pace, control possession, and wear down opposing defenses.

If BYU can maintain this approach and avoid turning the ball over, they will force Texas Tech to play at a slower rhythm than its usual explosive style.

What the bookies think

The bettors don’t think much of the Cougars’ chances in this matchup, consistently coming out the wrong end of what they think is a double-digit result.

Texas Tech is a 10.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the most recent game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas Tech at -400 and for BYU at +315 to win outright.

BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction: Who wins?

Texas Tech vs. BYU football game prediction — Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

BYU will be able to move the ball consistently, especially behind its productive ground attack, but over time the Red Raiders’ front seven alignment will win more of those battles than they lose.

Still, the Cougars’ own secondary should win matchups against a Texas Tech passing attack that has been stymied at times by injuries at quarterback.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas Tech wins 27-20
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the under

More: Texas Tech vs. BYU score prediction by expert model

How to watch BYU vs. Texas Tech

When: Sat., Nov. 8
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
Where: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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