Texas Tech vs. BYU prediction: Who wins the Big 12 Championship, and why?

Texas Tech already dominated BYU last month in the regular season, but plenty more is on the line as these teams square off for the Big 12 championship and contention in the College Football Playoff.

BYU succumbed to a 22-point loss against the Red Raiders in Lubbock back in November, its only loss of the season, and another here would keep the Cougars out of the playoff picture for good.

Win or lose here, Texas Tech should be in, as one of the three-most dominant teams in college football, a reputation it has earned on the back of the best defense in school history.

Texas Tech vs. BYU: What to watch

Texas Tech vs. BYU prediction for Big 12 Championship Game — James Guillory-Imagn Images

1. Texas Tech Passing Attack vs. BYU Pass Defense

Can BYU survive Texas Tech’s vertical passing game over four quarters?

Texas Tech comes in as one of the country’s most explosive offenses, ranking near the top nationally in points per game and in plays of 20-plus yards, which has been a defining trait of its one-loss season.

BYU has a solid scoring defense and has generally limited big plays statistically, but the Cougars were shredded in the first meeting when Texas Tech jumped out early and hit chunk gains through the air.

Finding answers in coverage and generating more pressure on the quarterback is crucial if they want to flip the script.

2. Battle at the line

BYU’s physical run game will have to consistently move against Texas Tech’s defensive front, something few opponents have done this season.

BYU’s offense has leaned on a balanced attack all season, with a strong rushing output and an offensive line that is one of the Cougars’ biggest strengths.

If the Red Raiders again win the line of scrimmage and put BYU behind the chains, the Cougars will struggle to keep pace.

3. Fast starts and turnovers

Texas Tech is among college football’s leaders in turnover margin, ranking fourth at plus-13 overall and plus-1.08 per game, and those takeaways have set up short fields for their offenses to work from.

BYU has also protected the ball well, and any realistic upset path likely requires the Cougars to flip what happened in Lubbock by stealing a possession or two, avoiding stalled drives in their own territory, and preventing Texas Tech from racing to another multi-score first-half lead.

Texas Tech vs. BYU prediction: Who wins the Big 12 Championship?

Line: Texas Tech -12.5, 49.5

Texas Tech is at or near the top of the Big 12 in the most important defensive categories and nothing that has transpired since it last played BYU has changed there.

Sure, the Cougars should have a more healthy LJ Martin behind center to run the ball and extend drives, opening up more opportunities for this offense to get more aggressive downfield and add another dimension to its attack.

But it’s hard to see an area where BYU has become demonstratively better than the team it was the last time it was dominated by the Red Raiders.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas Tech wins 36-17
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Texas Tech vs. BYU score prediction by expert football model

How to watch the Big 12 Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 6
Where: Arlington

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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