Texas vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert football model

SEC football returns to action this weekend, but this time the blue-blood appears to be on upset alert against a traditional bottom-feeder, as Texas welcomes resurgent Vanderbilt in Week 10 action.

Vanderbilt heads to Austin for the first time since 1903 and these programs will play each other for just the second time overall since 1928, but headed in apparently very different directions.

Vandy is playing historic football by beating three AP ranked opponents for the first time ever, while Texas won very close matchups on the road against lesser competition and nowhere near the standard its preseason No. 1 ranking had indicated.

What do the analytics predict will happen as the Commodores pay a visit to the Longhorns?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Vanderbilt compare in this Week 10 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Texas vs. Vanderbilt score prediction

The models think the Commodore win streak is about to come to an end on the Forty Acres, but in a game that could come down to the last play.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Vanderbilt outright by a projected score of 26 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.8 points in the process.

The model gives the Longhorns a narrow 57 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 234-230 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 24-29 (45.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting market is also siding with the home team in this SEC matchup, but by a narrow margin.

Texas is a 2.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas at -152 and for Vanderbilt at +128 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Vanderbilt kept this a very close game in Nashville a year ago, with the Longhorns only escaping with a 27-24 victory, and this time the former has most of its production back while the latter is playing with some notoriously shaky quarterback output. And now Arch Manning is injured.

Texas appears unable to run the ball with any real effect, and Vanderbilt is one of the best in the SEC at preventing opponents from doing just that, which, combined with that question at quarterback, could spell doom for the Longhorns on their home ground.

Vanderbilt is no fluke that happens to be on a streak. This team is powerful on both lines of scrimmage, 1 of just 5 programs that rank top 25 in both rushing offense and defense, and is producing consistently on offense behind the work of a generational QB in Diego Pavia.

You now live in a world where Vanderbilt is a realistic bet to beat Texas in Austin, and that’s what could happen on Saturday.

Vanderbilt +2.5
Commodores to win +128
Bet over 46.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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