USC vs. Oregon score prediction by expert football model

Two old rivals square off in what is now Big Ten country, both looking for attention from the College Football Playoff selectors, as No. 15 USC hits the road against No. 7 Oregon this Saturday.

Oregon is currently on the right side of the College Football Playoff bubble, inside the top-ten of the bracket as the No. 7 seed and projected to host a first-round game at Autzen.

USC is on the outside looking in, but can make quite an impression with a good showing in this game. Already at two losses, a third would put it out for good.

USC vs. Oregon score prediction

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how the Trojans and Ducks compare in this Week 13 college football game.

So far, that model really likes the Ducks.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat USC by a projected score of 33 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 10.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Ducks a solid 75 percent chance of outright victory over the Trojans.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 320-305 against the spread with a 51.2 win percentage.

Last week, it was 34-24 (58.6%) in its picks against the spread, its second-best showing of the 2025 season.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are also siding strongly with the Ducks, and agree with the double-digit consensus.

Oregon is a 9.5 point favorite against USC, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 59.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -390 and for USC at +310 to win outright.

What we think will happen

The plan for Oregon here is seductively simple: run the ball and keep the Trojans dynamic aerial attack led by quarterback Jayden Maiava off the field.

That could just work. Noah Whittington averages more than 8 yards per carry behind a stalwart Ducks line and USC has had some real issues stopping good backs from getting a rhythm on the ground.

Oregon -9.5
Ducks to win -390
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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