Two College Football Programs on Collision Course for National Championship, Says FPI

The regular season in college football is only around half finished, but one ratings system has a pair of stout favorites to reach the national title game. ESPN's FPI can sometimes render some unusual results, but its future-based analysis has a clear national title picture. There are seven schools that FPI has with a better than 5.8% chance of reaching the CFP national title game-- but two are ahead of the pack.

The Surprising No. 1 Team

Notre Dame is now the No. 1 ranked squad in ESPN's mathematically-centered FPI ratings. The Irish are given a 44.7% shot at winning out over the regular season. As Notre Dame is classified as an independent, the Irish won't have a conference title game to win and thus would be virtually guaranteed a top four spot and a first-round CFP bye. From there, ESPN sees the Irish as having a 32.1% shot at reaching the CFP title game and an 18.4% shot at winning the title.

The Likely CFP Title Game Opposition

Georgia is also 6-0 and sits second in the FPI ratings, Despite facing life in the SEC, the Bulldogs have an even better shot at completing a 12-0 regular season-- 46.4% according to FPI. Georgia does have the mild complication of having to then win the SEC title game, which FPI gives them just a 54.3% shot at doing. Alabama and Texas are the most likely challengers in that particular game. But regardless of that outcome, FPI still has Georgia with a slightly better chance than Notre Dame of reaching the national championship game-- 32.2%. The Bulldogs are figured at a 17.8% chance of winning the title.

It won't be the first CFP battle for the two teams, should it come to pass. Notre Dame bested Georgia 23-10 in a CFP quarterfinal battle in New Orleans after the 2024 regular season. Georgia, on the other hand, clinced the 1980 national title by besting Notre Dame 17-10 in the Sugar Bowl on January 1, 1981. UGA leads the all-time series between the schools by a 3-1 count.

FPI Issues and Other Contenders

Of course, FPI tends to draw plenty of ire because of its math-based approach. Unlike the human polls, FPI doesn't seem to focus much on head-to-head matchups and relies significantly on margin of victory. Despite second losses on the season, FPI still has LSU and Oregon in its national top 10. On the other hand, 5-0 UCLA is No. 36 and 5-1 Kentucky-- fresh off beating LSU-- is No. 30.

ESPN's seven-team field of likely CFP title game competitors draws its teams entirely from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Indepedent ranks. Miami holds a massive FPI lead over the rest of the ACC and Notre Dame's high rank is previously noted. No Big 12 team tops Texas Tech with a 5.8% shot at making the title game. The other SEC contenders besides Georgia are Alabama and Texas, with Ohio State and Indiana from the Big Ten completing the list of possibilities, although Georgia and Notre Dame both have excellent paths that may hold up with FPI's top two sqauds.

Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame could be headed for a CFP title game battle with Georgia, if ESPN's FPI ratings are accurate. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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