Week 13 college football games most likely to shake up the College Football Playoff rankings

Many of the top teams in the College Football Playoff rankings are either off this week or have highly favorable matchups.

No. 1 Ohio State plays Rutgers, No. 2 Indiana is on a bye, No. 3 Texas A&M gets Samford, No. 4 Georgia hosts Charlotte, No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 6 Ole Miss are on byes, No. 9 Notre Dame plays Syracuse and No. 10 Alabama hosts Eastern Illinois.

But there are four games with CFP hopefuls facing real upset potential in Week 13.

(All point spreads via ESPN Bet. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.)

No. 15 USC (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) at No. 7 Oregon (9-1, 6-1)

Because Dan Lanning has started his Oregon tenure so successfully, elevating the program another notch in each of his first three seasons, it would be a major letdown for the Ducks if they don't return to the playoffs this year.

And that becomes a very real possibility if they don't beat USC at home on Saturday in the game of the day across college football.

The No. 15 Trojans and No. 7 Ducks are essentially vying to be the third Big Ten team into the CFP field after No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana (with Michigan still in the conversation if it can upset the Buckeyes next week).

With five SEC teams presently ranked in the top 10 by the CFP committee, the Big 12, ACC and the highest-ranked Group of Five champion assured of automatic berths and No. 9 Notre Dame seemingly in control of its playoff path, that would leave only three spots for Big Ten teams as it currently stands.

There are any number of scenarios that can still play out, of course, but both USC and Oregon should be treating this game like a CFP elimination game.

Oregon is a 10.5-point favorite entering Saturday, but that might be overlooking the Trojans' potential to win this one.

USC ranks 6th nationally in total offense (488.9 yards per game) and 10th in scoring (38.2 points per game), has a top Biletnikoff Award candidate in star receiver Makai Lemon (71 catches for 1,090 yards and 8 TDs), a talented big-play QB in Jayden Maiava (2,868 passing yards, 18 TDs, 6 INTs with 6 rushing TDs) and is coming off a big 26-21 win over ranked Iowa.

USC's only losses came on the road at Illinois on a field goal in the final seconds and at Notre Dame, where the Trojans frankly choked away a chance to win up 24-21 late in the third quarter before losing 34-24.

Lincoln Riley still has to prove he can win big road games -- his only Big Ten road wins in two years were against crosstown rival UCLA last year and against Purdue and Nebraska this year -- but the Trojans have momentum and a lot at stake while trying to change that narrative after two down years in 2023-24.

Oregon's only win over a team in the current CFP rankings was 18-16 at Iowa, while the Ducks lost 30-20 at home to now-No. 2 Indiana, and QB Dante Moore has struggled in those biggest games. He passed for just 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs in the loss to Indiana and 112 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT in the win over Iowa.

No. 8 Oklahoma (8-2, 4-2 SEC) at No. 22 Missouri (7-2, 3-3)

Oklahoma is coming off its biggest win of the season, 23-21 at then-No. 4 Alabama last week, but the Sooners pulled off that upset thanks to three huge Crimson Tide turnovers -- an early tone-setting pick-6, a fumbled punt return that led to an Oklahoma touchdown and a costly fumble that set up a field goal.

Oklahoma had just 212 offensive yards in that game (to Alabama's 406) and will need a lot more from QB John Mateer and Co. Saturday vs. Missouri, which is led by college football's leading rusher Ahmad Hardy (1,346 yards, 15 TDs).

Hardy just ran for 300 yards and 3 TDs last week vs. Mississippi State and is talented enough to swing a game on his own. Missouri is also expected to get starting QB Beau Pribula back from the dislocated ankle that cost him the last two games.

Oklahoma is a 6.5-point favorite.

Pittsburgh (7-3, 5-1 ACC) at No. 16 Georgia Tech (9-1, 6-1)

Georgia Tech has been one of the great stories in college football this year, but the Yellow Jackets' storybook season is coming apart at the seams in recent weeks.

The Yellow Jackets lost 48-36 at NC State and then almost lost again to lowly Boston College last week before rallying for a 36-34 win.

Given that -- and with Georgia Tech having no wins over any currently ranked teams -- it needs to win out vs. Pittsburgh and No. 4 Georgia next week or get into the ACC championship game and win that to have a chance at the playoffs.

And while Georgia Tech is a 2.5-point favorite at home in this game, Pittsburgh may actually be the better team.

The Panthers lost big to Notre Dame last week, but they are 5-1 overall since turning to true freshman QB Mason Heintschel.

No. 11 BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) at Cincinnati (7-3, 5-2)

BYU is in the toughest spot of any one-loss playoff hopeful. The Cougars need to win out to make the playoffs, but they also control their path to the Big 12 championship game, which means winning out would also set up a likely rematch with Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders humbled BYU, 29-7, two weeks ago. So even if the Cougars reach the conference championship game, if they lose for a second time to Texas Tech, it's unlikely they make the playoff.

But first things first. BYU absolutely has to win at Cincinnati this week to keep those hopes alive.

The Bearcats have lost two straight, at Utah and then a devastating home loss to Arizona, but they had won seven straight before that and are plenty capable of pulling the upset.

That's why BYU has been set as just a 2.5-point favorite in this game, with its season on the line.