Breaking Down the Pittsburgh Pirates' 2024 Starting Rotation Ahead of Opening Day

With Paul Skenes' MLB debut still a ways off, franchise cornerstone Mitch Keller will once again lead a decently revamped Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation.

The 2024 MLB regular season is about to begin, and that means it's time for every club to lock down its top five starting pitchers.

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't made the postseason since 2015, and they're going to need their pitching staff to turn things around in order to end that hiatus. A pair of new veterans could take the Pirates in the right direction, but their top prospects are the ones everyone has their eyes on.

Here is a quick preview of how Pittsburgh's starting pitching will look in 2024:

1. Mitch Keller, RHP
2023 Stats: 13-9, 4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.3 WAR
2024 Projections: 11-11, 4.17 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.7 WAR

The Pirates inked Keller to a five-year contract extension in February, locking him in as their go-to Opening Day man for the foreseeable future. And between what he produced in 2022 and 2023, Keller has shown he has the stuff to lead Pittsburgh's rotation right now as well.

2. Martín Pérez, LHP
2023 Stats: 10-4, 4.45 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 0.5 WAR (TEX)
2024 Projections: 8-10, 4.72 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.3 K.9, 1.2 WAR

Fresh off winning the World Series with the Texas Rangers, Pérez is set to take on a new challenge in Pittsburgh. He will have more pressure on him to produce than he did with the Rangers or Boston Red Sox, when he was surrounded by All-Stars and other veterans, but Pérez has almost been a steady rotation piece wherever he's been.

3. Jared Jones, RHP
2023 Stats: 5-9, 3.85 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 (AA/AAA)
2024 Projections: 7-8, 4.71 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 0.9 WAR

Unlike some of top Pirates prospects, Jones is actually set to make his MLB debut during the first week of regular season action. He didn't have an incredible season in the minors last year, but Pittsburgh's No. 3 prospect did toss 16.1 scoreless innings in Spring Training to snag a big league roster spot.

4. Bailey Falter, LHP
2023 Stats: 2-9, 5.36 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 0.4 WAR (PHI/PIT)
2024 Projections: 3-3, 4.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 0.4 WAR

The Pirates picked Falter up midseason in 2023, acquiring the lefty after he spent eight years in the Philadelphia Phillies' system. His 2022 was much better than his 2023, so Pittsburgh is surely hoping last season was a blip on the radar for the 26-year-old southpaw.

5. Marco Gonzales, LHP
2023 Stats: 4-1, 5.22 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 0.6 WAR (SEA)
2024 Projections: 7-10, 4.87 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 0.8 WAR

Gonzales got salary dumped by both the Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves this offseason, which wasn't very surprising considering his 50.0 innings and 5.22 ERA in 2023. Over the previous five years, though, Gonzales had a 3.94 ERA and his 131 starts ranked No. 12 in the league.

JT Brubaker, who underwent Tommy John surgery, isn't expected back until July. Johan Oviedo, meanwhile, underwent Tommy John surgery in December and won't pitch at all in 2024 as a result.

The Pirates do have a few young pitchers biding their time in the minors who could very well make their MLB debuts in 2024, namely Paul Skenes. Last year's No. 1 overall pick out of LSU is about to turn 22 years old and has been a pro for just eight months, but his eventual call-up is widely anticipated.

Quinn Priester, the Pirates' No. 3 prospect and 2019 first round pick, could break into the majors as well after making 8 starts for Pittsburgh in 2023. Controversial former Yankees pitcher Domingo Germán inked a minor league deal with the Pirates earlier this month, so a call-up for him could be in the cards too.

Luis Ortiz is an internal option who could snag a starting spot in the more immediate future, although manager Derek Shelton said he would open the season in the bullpen. That isn't a permanent decision, however.

All 2024 projections are compiled using FanGraphs' Steamer model.

Follow Fastball on FanNation on social media

Continue to follow our Fastball on FanNation coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and by following us on Twitter @FastballFN.

You can also follow Sam Connon on Twitter @SamConnon.