Breaking Down the St. Louis Cardinals' 2024 Starting Rotation Ahead of Opening Day
Even with blockbuster free agent addition Sonny Gray injured, the St. Louis Cardinals managed to build one of the oldest starting rotations in all of baseball.
The 2024 MLB regular season is about to begin, and that means it's time for every club to lock down its top five starting pitchers.
The St. Louis Cardinals certainly bolstered their rotation this offseason, although they took an interesting approach to doing so. If free agent addition Sonny Gray were healthy, the average age of their five starters would be just about 35 years old, and most of those guys are set to make decent money this season.
Here is a quick preview of how St. Louis' starting pitching will look in 2024:
1. Miles Mikolas, RHP
2023 Stats: 9-13, 4.78 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 3.1 WAR
2024 Projections: 11-11, 4.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 1.9 WAR
Mikolas, even though he's entering his age-35 season, leads all of baseball with 67 starts over the last two years. And while his ERA last season was the worst it's been since he arrived in St. Louis in 2018, his WAR was the second-highest of his career. All in all, Mikolas provides value with his availability and veteran presence.
2. Zack Thompson, LHP
2023 Stats: 5-7, 4.48 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.1 WAR
2024 Projections: 4-4, 4.27 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 0.5 WAR
Thompson may be drawing the second start of the Cardinals' regular season slate, but this spot will belong to Gray in due time. St. Louis drafted Thompson in the first round back in 2019, but he has proven to be more effective as a reliever thus far in his big league career. Still, he is capable of filling in as a sixth starter and injury replacement, which is the role he's taking on to open 2024.
3. Lance Lynn, RHP
2023 Stats: 13-11, 5.73 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 0.5 WAR (CHW/LAD)
2024 Projections: 10-10, 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 WAR
It's been a long time since Lynn left the Cardinals in 2017, and even longer since he was a member of their 2011 World Series team. Now a soon-to-be 37-year-old two-time All-Star, Lynn needs to rebound from a sketchy 2023 in order to hang around in the big leagues another year.
4. Steven Matz, LHP
2023 Stats: 4-7, 3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.0 WAR
2024 Projections: 9-8, 3.92 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.0 WAR
Matz only gave St. Louis 105.0 innings in 2023, but it was an improvement from his 48.0 innings and 5.25 ERA in 2022. If he can be the reliable innings-eater he was with the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays, the Cardinals will be happy to have him as an end-of-the-rotation left-handed option.
5. Kyle Gibson, RHP
2023 Stats: 15-9, 4.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.6 WAR (BAL)
2024 Projections: 11-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.0 WAR
The Baltimore Orioles got nearly 200 innings out of Gibson last year, and that's exactly why St. Louis targeted the righty this fall. Only three pitchers have tossed more innings than Gibson since 2014 – Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke.
Gray, who inked a three-year, $75 million contract with the Cardinals in November, is only expected to spend a few weeks on the injured list with a hamstring issue. Last year's AL Cy Young runner-up is projected to go 12-10 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.1 WAR in his age 34 season.
Once he's back to full strength, Gray will bump Thompson out of the five-man rotation, barring any other injuries.
All 2024 projections are compiled using FanGraphs' Steamer model.
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