Garrett Crochet's Uncharacteristic Meltdown All But Confirms AL Cy Young Winner

What looked like a photo finish now seems like a breakaway

Sep 2, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) pitches against the Cleveland Guardians during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet has had a phenomenal season to this point, but he's already deep in uncharted territory.

Crochet suffered a major hiccup on Tuesday night, allowing four home runs and seven earned runs in total to the Cleveland Guardians. The Red Sox battled back from a 7-5 deficit to secure an 11-7 win, but the loss may have proven costly to Crochet in another way.

Crochet, who leads Major League Baseball with 218 strikeouts, looked like the primary challenger to Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal in his quest for back-to-back Cy Young Awards. However, if the race is still on after Tuesday night, it's going to be a very steep hill for Crochet to climb.

Crochet's blow-up outing may hand Cy Young race to Skubal

Aug 31, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Skubal and Crochet previously had similar stats in many regards, but as of Wednesday, Skubal now has a near-half-run edge in ERA: 2.18 to 2.67. His WHIP is significantly lower as well: 0.87 to 1.08. If you like wins above replacement, bWAR and fWAR both have Skubal outpacing Crochet 6.2 to 5.0.

Skubal not only won the award last year, but he proved his ability to last a full season, with 192 innings not counting the playoffs. He's up to 173 this year, so with 3 1/2 weeks to go, it's hard to doubt his durability.

Crochet, on the other hand, only began starting last season and had his workload limited to 146 innings with the lowly Chicago White Sox. Now at 178 1/3, it's reasonable to wonder if fatigue is causing some of his recent command issues.

Are there any other challengers worth considering? Houston Astros star Hunter Brown is likely the No. 3 option, as his 2.34 ERA bests Crochet's, but he's more than 30 strikeouts off the pace with 182. Seattle Mariners star Bryan Woo also gave up three earned runs to push his ERA north of three on Tuesday night.

The Red Sox should still be thrilled with the season Crochet has turned in, but they should be more concerned with getting him right for the playoffs than trying to maximize his chances at winning Cy Young. While anything technically can still happen, it would likely take a huge stumble from Skubal to flip the odds at this point.

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