How Latest Hunter Greene Injury Update Impacts NL Playoff Picture

Cincinnati Reds fans have received some tough news about the status of the team's ace.

Right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene is set to undergo a procedure on Wednesday to remove "bone chips and loose bodies" from his right elbow, according to reporter Charlie Goldsmith. The 26-year-old flamethrower is expected to be sidelined 14 to 16 weeks, which means he likely wouldn't be able to make his season debut until at least July, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer's Gordon Wittenmyer.

While this is undoubtedly a massive blow to the Reds' pitching staff, the glass-half-full news for Cincinnati fans is that this isn't a Tommy John situation. Whenever baseball fans hear about possible elbow injuries involving pitchers, they tend to think about the worst-case scenario. But with Greene seemingly avoiding Tommy John surgery, he isn't expected to miss the entire 2026 season and should be able to pitch meaningful innings for the Reds later in the year.

With Greene sidelined for the first few months of the season, however, some of the Reds' other young pitchers will have to step up if Cincinnati wants to remain in the National League playoff picture.

Can Cincinnati still be a playoff team without Greene?

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Chase Burns — Cincinnati Reds director of pitching Derek Johnson (36) talks with pitcher Chase Burns (26) during a warmup session at the Cincinnati Reds player development complex in Goodyear, Ariz., on Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Unfortunately for Reds fans, Greene has dealt with a few injuries so far in his young career. In fact, he made just 19 regular-season starts for Cincinnati last year after missing time due to a groin injury. But despite getting only 107 innings out of their ace in 2025, the Reds still earned the last NL Wild Card spot with an 83-79 record.

This proves the Reds can make the playoffs even when they don't get a full season from Greene. Cincinnati also beefed up its lineup this year with the offseason signing of slugger Eugenio Suárez. But if the Reds want to build on last season, they'll need some of their young arms like Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder to step up in Greene's absence.

Another concern for Reds fans with playoff hopes, though, involves some of the other NL teams that missed the postseason last year but made improvements or got healthier over the offseason. The New York Mets made a flurry of moves to revamp their roster, while the Atlanta Braves are hoping to get a full season out of Ronald Acuña Jr. this year. And the Pittsburgh Pirates could be a dark horse for a Wild Card spot with Paul Skenes, plus some of their exciting top prospects potentially on their way to the big leagues.

It's far too early to count Cincinnati out of the running for a playoff spot this year, but Greene's injury definitely puts the Reds' backs against the wall before the season even begins.