How Tarik Skubal's Arbitration Case Could Affect Tigers, Remaining Pitching Market

The Detroit Tigers and pitcher Tarik Skubal are set to go to arbitration on Wednesday, Feb. 4, to determine the ace's salary for the 2026 season. And the outcome of this arbitration hearing could have massive ramifications on the Tigers' plans for the rest of the offseason, as well as the overall free agent pitching market.

Skubal is reportedly seeking $32 million in his final year under contract with the Tigers, while Detroit purportedly filed an offer of $19 million. Unless the two parties can reach an agreement beforehand, the arbitration hearing will determine how much the two-time Cy Young Award winner gets paid this season.

Here's how Skubal's arbitration hearing could impact the Tigers and free agency as a whole leading up to spring training.

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Skubal's arbitration could set off a chain reaction

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal — Sep 12, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) exits the game against the Miami Marlins during the fourth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

As pointed out by insider Ken Rosenthal on the Foul Territory podcast, the outcome of Skubal's arbitration hearing "likely will influence what the Tigers do next."

"If they lose and Skubal gets $32 million, I don't expect the Tigers to play for a starting pitcher, whether it's Bassitt or Giolito, anybody that they might be in line for," Rosenthal said. "If they win and that salary is $19 million for Skubal instead of $32 million, then perhaps the Tigers will do that one additional piece."

Rosenthal further added that it seems like Detroit's "next move hinges on what happens in that hearing." So not only will this arbitration case determine Skubal's salary, but it will also seemingly affect whether the Tigers add another pitcher or stick with their current rotation. In turn, that means if Skubal wins the arbitration hearing, there's likely one less team for the multitude of free-agent pitchers to sign with.

Many quality starters shockingly remain available with spring training just around the corner, including Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen. While it seems unlikely that Detroit would pursue one of those top-end options, other names like Chris Bassitt and Lucas Giolito could be in play depending on the outcome of Skubal's arbitration hearing.

If the Tigers win the arbitration hearing and then decide to sign another starting pitcher, that could be the first domino to fall in a chain reaction where teams rapidly make moves as another name is scratched off the list of remaining options. While it's all hypothetical right now, the impact of Skubal's arbitration case on the Tigers and the league overall could quickly start to unfold over the next 24 hours.

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