The Offseason Begins With a 2027 Lockout Looming on the Horizon

With the 2026 World Series concluded and the Milwaukee Brewers crowned champions, the offseason has now begun in earnest for MLB. The overarching storyline is the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB owners and players.

Should both sides fail to reach an agreement before December 1, the next step will be the owners voting to lock out the players and prevent them from coming to work. That will be done to avoid a potential player strike like in 1994-1995. Teams and players will be unable to communicate during the offseason in the event of a lockout.

That will have a ripple effect on the offseason and what happens as a whole. That means free agency as a whole is stopped, and a lot of posturing will be going on from MLB and the players union.

Why MLB Could Be Heading for a Lockout

The main holdup in negotiations is over a potential salary cap, which has been a contentious point for decades. Talks of a cap in the 1990s resulted in the players striking in the 1994 season, as they had been playing without a CBA. It took an injunction from a federal judge to end that strike, while the two sides negotiated a new CBA.

In its initial proposal, MLB suggested a salary floor of $171 million and a cap of $245 million. That's certain to lead to some big decisions, as over 20 teams are noncompliant. That means a lot of decisions will have to be made to become compliant.

But if the two sides' respective stances on a potential cap remain the same, it's going to be a contentious negotiation. MLB's stance is that, by shrinking the payroll disparity between the biggest (Dodgers) and smallest (Marlins) spenders, it would promote more parity across the league.

A cap has been a nonstarter for the union over the last 30-plus years. MLB players are on the record voicing their opposition to a cap. Additionally,MLBPA Executive Director Bruce Meyer has repeatedly accused owners of trying to force a cap in order to lower earning potential of the players and increase franchise values.

Owners don't want a salary cap because they believe it's good for the fans, says @MLBPA Interim Executive Director Bruce Meyer.

"They want a cap system because it'll increase their profits, and they think it'll do the same for their franchise values." pic.twitter.com/RiPjSUZTm4
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) September 16, 2026

What a Lockout Means for the MLB Offseason

This would follow the same playbook as five years ago. The lockout in the 2021-2022 offseason extended all the way until mid-March. While it resulted in the first week of the season being postponed until October, it may not have the same result this time around.

The threat of a lockout would significantly impact how teams navigate the offseason. They only have five weeks to sign players before the CBA expires. Some teams prefer to get the bulk of their offseason work done by the holidays. With a potential transaction freeze coming in on December 1, there will be a lot of moves in the next five weeks.

If owners vote for a lockout, it would be the third time the players and owners have had a labor dispute under MLB commissioner Rob Manfred. The first was a return-to-play negotiation during the COVID-19 pandemic that canceled over 100 games. The other was the aforementioned lockout from five years ago.

It's likely that both the league and players will negotiate through the media. In fact, they already are, given they're releasing proposals as trial balloons. There will be much posturing, although not much movement will happen until the threat of losing games becomes a realistic possibility.

How a Lockout Could Affect the 2027 Season

Should the lockout extend into February, then there will be no workouts. In the case of 2022, there was about a three-week ramp-up period from when an agreement was reached to the regular season.

There are multiple deadlines that could spur action. The first is the 2027 regular season, which begins on March 24. The next would be just before the 60-game mark of the season, which would be near the end of May.

Andrew Marchand and Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported on September 25 that if 60 games are canceled in 2027, then their current deals would extend into 2029. That seems like a hard deadline for MLB to try to beat, so it would have the opportunity to renegotiate its national broadcast packages.

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