Tarik Skubal’s Recovery Will Shape MLB’s Next Potential Mega-Deal

The Detroit Tigers are 19-22 on the season and have lost six of their last 10 games.

That's not all, though. The Tigers also lost ace Tarik Skubal for the foreseeable future after undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. Initially, it was reported that Skubal would miss two or three months. Since then, Jon Heyman of The New York Post followed up and reported that Skubal could return in as little as four to six weeks.

Regardless of whether Skuball misses one month or three, he's going to be fascinating to follow over the next year. The reason why this is the case is that the two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner is going to be a free agent after the season. Will the Tigers opt to move him? There has been chatter that he could be in line for a historic deal in free agency. He already made history with his $32 million deal in arbitration. Right now, Los Angeles Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the largest contract for a pitcher in big league history at $325 million over 12 years. But he also got the deal at 25 years old.

What Will Tarik Skubal Get In Free Agency?

Apr 29, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Right now, Skubal is 29 years old and will turn 30 years old in November. There have been reports out there about how much Skubal could look for $400 million in free agency. To be fair, he is the two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball when healthy. Outside of him, Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates is the guy with the best argument. Regardless, if he stayed healthy all season and went on to fight for another Cy Young Award, that $400 million number wouldn't be as crazy.

Before going down with his injury, he had a 2.70 ERA in seven starts and was well on his way. But what now? Will a team decide to roll the dice on a 30-year-old pitcher coming off elbow surgery with the largest deal for a pitcher in MLB history by far? Let's also not forget that after the season, the league's collective bargaining agreement will expire, which will bring debates and potential issues around baseball in general.

It's just May 11. It's far too early to be talking about free agency in general, but when you have a guy who could be in line for history, it's going to get attention. That was the case all year in 2025 with Kyle Tucker and Juan Soto the year before. Also, let's not forget about Shohei Ohtani a few years ago. This year, Skubal is the guy who could make history, but there are a lot of variables at play here.

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