Why MLB May Not Avoid 'Inevitable' Lockout with CBA Expiring

The threat of a lockout is real.

Spring training at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, Ariz., will soon be filled with major league players following the ratification of a new collective bargaining agreement betweeen the players and team owners. Usp Mlb Lockout S Bbo Usa Az | Patrick Breen / USA TODAY NETWORK

The 2026 season has been a treat so far. The season is two months old, and a there have been a lot of pleasant surprises. However, all 30 teams in Major League Baseball have a common enemy: the looming threat of a lockout.

The current CBA expires on December 1, and because of how far apart the owners and players association are in terms of negotiations, as well as the owners' desire for a salary cap, it may be a long one.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch believes a lockout is inevitable and explained why in his weekly Cardinals' chat.

Cardinals' Insider Believes Lockout is Certain

Feb 24, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Angels A general view of the MLB logo and first base during the first inning of a spring training game between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images | Allan Henry-Imagn Images

"I see the lockout as a certainty because it’s essentially transactional, costs nothing except for optics, and is a practical/official move to get on with it already," Goold wrote. "When the current CBA expires, the owners have the option of continuing to play under it – which they don’t want – or lock the players out. A lockout is an owner-forced work stoppage. A strike is a players’ work stoppage. A lockout is the functional outcome of an expired CBA if the owners want to change it and not continue on with it."

"Since it’s unlikely that the sides will come to an agreement before the threat of losing games and revenue is real, and that isn’t the case in December when the CBA expires, a lockout is inevitable."

This is unfortunately the sad reality of the situation. The two sides are simply too far apart and dug in on their respective issues. There isn't any progress towards a new deal at the moment, which does not bode well for the winter.

Typically, true progress isn't made until late in the game, but it's going to be hard for MLB to avoid yet another lockout. Fortunately, no games were lost during the last lockout, but because the owners are pushing so hard for a salary cap and both sides are so far apart on a lot of other issues, the threat of missing games in 2027 is real.

This could make for a very long lockout and a very short 2027 season that likely starts later in the year. It's going to be hard to avoid this as time continues to tick. It will be interesting to see where things stand at the beginning of December, but it's clear that the threat of a lockout and a lot of lost games is very real.