UFC Mexico: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Full Fight Card Picks & Predictions

The UFC returns to Mexico City this Saturday (February 28), and MMA KO’s Drew Beaupré is here to provide predictions for all 13 fights on the card.

The main event will see unranked flyweight contender Lone’er Kavanagh step up on short notice for the biggest fight of his career against two-time Flyweight Champion Brandon Moreno, who was originally scheduled to face Asu Almabayev before Almabayev was forced out of the event with an injury.

The co-main event is also a pivotal clash for the UFC bantamweight division, as former title challenger Marlon “Chito” Vera will attempt to snap the first three-fight skid of his career when he takes on the division’s #10-ranked contender David Martinez.

UFC Mexico Main Card Predictions

Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh

Brandon Moreno (red gloves) celebrates after defeating Amir Albazi (not pictured) in a flyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Rogers Place. | Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

Credit to Moreno for accepting this matchup, as he’s the one with everything to lose here against an unranked opponent that’s only three fights into his UFC career. I actually would have expected “The Assassin Baby” to be more heavily-favored here, and I’ll be surprised if Kavanagh is able to pull off the upset.

(Pick: Moreno)

Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez

Marlon Vera (red gloves) fights Aiemann Zahabi (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Rogers Arena. | Simon Fearn-Imagn Images

Given how liberally the UFC has been cutting fighters this year, another loss here could at least put longtime UFC veteran Vera in serious dangerous of exiting the promotion. It’s always a question of whether or not “Chito” will be active enough any time he enters the cage, and with his current losing run I’m going to pick Vera to fight with a bit more urgency against Martinez.

(Pick: Vera)

Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green

Michael Johnson (red gloves) fights against Daniel Zellhuber (blue gloves) during UFC 318 at Smoothie King Center. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

I’m tempted to pick Green to score the upset here after Zellhuber’s loss to Michael Johnson, but in an orthodox vs. orthodox matchup “Golden Boy” should be able to utilize his significant reach advantage and snap a two-fight skid.

(Pick: Zellhuber)

Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes

Edgar Chairez (red gloves) fights Joshua Van (blue gloves) during Riyadh Season Noche UFC 306 at The Sphere. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Chairez’s losses to Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira have obviously aged quite well, and I think he’s rightfully favored to get things done against Bunes.

(Pick: Chairez)

Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

Imanol Rodriguez punches Roque Conceicao in a flyweight fight during DWCS 85. | (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Rodriguez may be the most highly-touted of several fighters making their debuts at UFC Mexico, and this unfortunately looks like a tough booking for Borjas that may signal the end of the Peruvian’s time with the UFC.

(Pick: Rodriguez)

Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco

Santiago Luna (red gloves) reacts after the fight against Quang Le (blue gloves) during Noche UFC at Frost Bank Center. | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

Coming off an impressive finish of Quang Le in his UFC debut, the 21-year-old Luna has the chance to fire up the fans in his home country when he kicks off the UFC Mexico main card against Pacheco.

(Pick: Luna)

UFC Mexico Preliminary Card Predictions

Jose Medina vs. Ryan Gandra

I love seeing seemingly-improbable upsets as much as anyone else, but it’s pretty clear what outcome the UFC is looking for by matching up a fighter on a four-fight losing streak against a debuting finisher like Gandra.

(Pick: Gandra)

Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez

Macy Chiasson (red gloves) fights Yana Santos (blue gloves) during UFC 320 at T-Mobile Arena. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Coming off back-to-back losses, I think Chiasson should get back on track in this matchup and halt Perez’s five-fight win streak.

(Pick: Chiasson)

Cristian Quiñonez vs. Kris Moutinho

Khalid Taha (red gloves) and Cristian Quinonez (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Accor Arena. | Per Haljestam-Imagn Images

After suffering submission-losses in his last two outings, Quiñonez has been given an opponent in Moutinho that will be happy to stand and trade with him on the feet and is coming off a knockout-loss in his UFC return last year.

(Pick: Quiñonez)

Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes

Cody Stamann (red gloves) fights Douglas Silva de Andrade (blue gloves) in a bantamweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Spectrum Center. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

This underrated matchup should be one of the more entertaining fights on the UFC Mexico prelims, and I’ll slightly lean with the longtime UFC veteran in de Andrade to spoil Reyes’ promotional debut.

(Pick: de Andrade)

Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin

The highly-touted Tarin is set for a huge opportunity in her home country after stepping in on very short notice to meet Kareckaite. The Lithuanian could certainly spoil Tarin’s promotional debut here, but I’m picking the 21-year-old to kick off her UFC career with a victory and firmly establish herself as a fighter worth watching at women’s flyweight.

(Pick: Tarin)

Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall

Mairon Santos (red gloves) fights Francis Marshall (blue gloves) during UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Both of these men will likely be fighting for their roster spots at UFC Mexico, and I think Marshall should be able to get his hand raised and even out his UFC record when he takes on Silva.

(Pick: Marshall)

Wes Schultz vs. Damian Pinas

Damian Pinas won a UFC contract with a first-round stoppage on Dana White's Contender Series. | (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

I’ll be interested to see if Schultz really gets the opportunity to test Pinas’ takedown defense here, but I have to side with “The Baba Yaga” to open his UFC account with another knockout-victory in this matchup.

(Pick: Pinas)

MMA KO has been providing comprehensive coverage for UFC Mexico all throughout fight week, and be sure to check back with us as for live results and highlights on fight night.