UFC 300: Max Holloway Huge Betting Underdog in Justin Gaethje BMF Fight
Max Holloway is a betting underdog ahead of his UFC 300 BMF title fight against Justin Gaethje on April 13.
Holloway opened as a +120 underdog and grew even more to +190. Gaethje opened at -160 and is an even bigger favorite now at -225. (Odds via BetOnline, subject to change)
"Blessed" has only been an underdog twice since defending his title against José Aldo in 2017, both times in rematches against Alexander Volkanovski. The oddsmakers see some fundamental issues in Holloway challenging Gaethje.
First of all, Holloway is stepping up in weight and fighting a native lightweight. The last time Holloway fought at lightweight was for the interim title against Dustin Poirier in 2019, a fight Holloway lost despite being the moderate favorite.
The stats are also a cause for concern. Gaethje has knocked out six of his eleven UFC opponents and scored six knockdowns across his UFC career (eight if you include the KOs of Michael Johnson and James Vick).
Holloway isn't known for being a ferocious puncher, more of a volume striker - he's also the record holder for total strikes landed in the UFC. On the flip side, Holloway has also absorbed well over 2,000 significant strikes without being knocked down.
Holloway's chin will certainly get tested against Gaethje, who is historically one of the hardest hitters in UFC lightweight history.