Topuria vs Gaethje: What Prediction Markets Say About the UFC Freedom 250 Main Event

Arguably, the biggest UFC event of the year is on deck with UFC Freedom 250 set for Saturday, June 13th, on the South Lawn of the White House. Per the prediction markets, Ilia Topuria should have an easy win over Justin Gaethje.

Polymarket’s UFC prediction market has a massive 84% ($10 to win $1.99) chance for Topuria to beat Gaethje, while the UFC prediction market on Kalshi is listing him at 80% ($10 to win $2.03) chance to win.

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje - Polymarket

Ilia Topuria 84%
Justin Gaethje 19%

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje - Kalshi

Ilia Topuria 80%
Justin Gaethje 20%

At Topuria’s current trading price, it isn't a matter of if he’ll win, but a matter of how he’ll win with different props also available for the bout. At an 80% chance or above to win on Polymarket and Kalshi, this indicates that Topuria is a massive favorite.

Topuria’s trading price hasn't changed much over the last week. Kalshi had him listed at 82% with Gaethje trading at 19%.

Why Topuria is a massive favorite

Given his undefeated 17-0 record and 15 finishes, it’s safe to say that prediction price setters didn't have any issues in setting this line heavily in favor of the champ. Especially with his last three bouts all being knockout wins in title bouts against Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira.

While Gaethje is a knockout specialist of his own with 20 KO/TKO wins over 27 career victories, he is extremely vulnerable against significant strikes, taking on a massive 7.05 per minute at a 51% success rate against his opponents.

For context, Topuria is landing 4.81 significant strikes on a 48% success rate while only allowing 36% of opponents' significant strikes to land. He’s also seen significant success on the ground, averaging just under two takedowns per bout at a 61% clip while boasting one of the best takedown success rates in the lightweight division at 93%.

It is also worth pointing out that all five of Justin Gaethje’s career losses have been early finishes. He’s been knocked out three times and submitted twice.

Polymarket props indicating Topuria TKO/KO win

Fight to go the distance?

Yes 15%
No 93%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Yes 95%
No 13%

Topuria to win by KO/TKO?

Yes 69%
No 32%

Given the numbers on Topuria’s striking, his success in scoring and defending takedowns, and his undefeated record, the markets set high prices for Topuria to finish this fight early. In nine bouts and wins in the UFC since 2020, Topuria has finished seven of those fights, including six knockouts and one submission.

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