How good is USC Trojans' No. 1-ranked recruiting class, really? Let's take a look

Andrew Nemec | May 1, 2025

USC head coach Lincoln Riley with five-star defensive athlete Xavier Griffin / Courtesy of Xavier Griffin

The USC Trojans are red-hot and rolling on the recruiting trail.

Lincoln Riley's program has the nation's No. 1 recruiting class - with 25 commitments in the fold.

That group is led by Gainesville (Georgia) five-star athlete Xavier Griffin, but was bolstered Thursday with the addition of IMG Academy (Florida) five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe, the nation's No. 9 overall prospect.

Suddenly, USC has a pair of top-10 commitments nationally and college football fans are beginning to wonder if the recruiting success of the Pete Carroll era could be returning to Los Angeles.

But it's important to contextualize that effort.

First, USC is absolutely recruiting like an elite-level program currently, a fact that is unimpeachable.

The Trojans have two five-star commitments from the South - Griffin (Georgia) and Pepe (Florida) - and are the current favorites for Folsom (California) five-star quarterback Ryder Lyons, as well as Archbishop Hoban (Ohio) four-star cornerback Elbert Hill and Kahuku (Hawaii) four-star linebacker Talanoa Illi.

Further, Riley seems to have re-positioned his stance this cycle to prioritize in-state recruiting, something he has failed to do thus far in his tenure.

And he's reaping the rewards.

While Lyons is still a "TBD," the Trojans have commitments from Rancho Cucamonga four-star cornerback RJ Sermons, Santa Margarita Catholic four-star defensive lineman Simote Katoanga, Loyola four-star cornerback Brandon Lockhart, Oaks Christian four-star running back Deshonne Redeaux and Mater Dei four-star defensive lineman Tomuhini Topui, all of whom are top-100 prospects nationally.

So, can USC hang on to its No. 1 spot through February's traditional early signing period?

Probably not - even if a top-10 class is likely.

USC has 25 commitments in its 2026 class - 11 more than any other program in country and close to the typical number programs finish with on Signing Day.

Therefore, it makes more sense to look at "average rating per commit" and "bluechip percentage" from last year's top programs for a better gauge of how the group will finish.

The Trojans are unlikely to go significantly over 25 commitments in its class, so it's safe to assume the class provides a solid sample of how they will finish - even if they end up "trading out" a few three-star recruits for higher-rated players.

IF USC were to climb to 30 pledges with five more bluechip prospects the underlying numbers still point to a top-10 or top-5 finish.

Let's take a look at this year's group.

Its 91.84 "average rating per commit" on 247Sports would've been good for No. 9 nationally last cycle.

As for its "bluechip percentage," percentage of commitments who are rated four-star recruits or better, USC sits at 52 percent (13-of-25).

Here's the bluechip percentage for the top-10 programs in last year's recruiting rankings: Texas (76 percent with 5 five-star recruits), Georgia (93 percent with 5 five-star recruits), Alabama (90.5 percent), Ohio State (80.7 percent), Oregon (95 percent), Michigan (70.8 percent), Florida (63 percent), Auburn (69. 2 percent), Texas A&M (84 percent) and LSU (91.3 percent).

Last year's USC class that finished No. 14 nationally? 50 percent (12-of-24), but the Trojans had just two top-100 prospects while this year's group already boasts seven.

Of course, that also assumes USC will hang on to its pair of five-star prospects from the South.

Last year, Riley landed a trio of five-star Georiga prospects early - quarterback Julian Lewis and defensive lineman Justus Terry and Isaiah Gibson - only to lose all three before Signing Day.

Many people still feel Griffin is a likely flip, and the ACC and SEC are unlikely to stop recruiting Pepe, but USC seems more well-equipt to hang on to its pledges this cycle.

It'a a factor to watch closely, as a key decommitment or two could lead to a dramatic reshuffling of resources in Los Angeles.

What does it all mean?

USC is way ahead of the rest of the country when it comes to number of commitments, which has largely fueled its surge to No. 1.

But even as it currently stands, USC's class (287.71 points) would rank No. 8 in last year's cycle -and it's only May.

A top-10 finish is likely for USC and a top-5 finish is within reach, but a No. 1 class would require a great deal of reshuffling at the bottom of the Trojans' current haul.

On the recruiting trail, USC is a problem.

But they aren't quite back just yet.

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