Missouri State vs. USC Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Sean Treppedi | Aug 27, 2025

Jayden Maiava steps into the spotlight as USC’s new quarterback, carrying both the pressure of Lincoln Riley’s system and the expectation to ignite a retooled Trojan offense in Week 1. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Coliseum will play host to a fascinating Week 1 mismatch as USC welcomes Missouri State, a program making its FBS debut after climbing the ladder in the Missouri Valley. 

The Trojans are heavy favorites, but the Bears arrive with the confidence of an eight-win 2024 and a quarterback in Jacob Clark who’s proven capable of hitting defenses with big-play strikes. 

USC has the brand, the talent and the pressure on Lincoln Riley to get things right quickly in 2025, yet the question is whether a rebuilt offense will look polished enough to step on the Bears' necks right out of the gate.

Missouri State isn’t expected to win, but its ability to test USC’s depth could decide whether the spread holds.

Missouri State vs. USC Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Missouri State +35.5 (-110)
• USC -35.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Missouri State (+5500)
• USC (N/A)

Total

• Over 59.5 (-105)
• Under 59.5 (-115)

Missouri State vs. USC How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, August 30, 2025 
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: LA Memorial Coliseum
• How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports
• Missouri State Record: 0-0
• USC Record: 0-0

Missouri State vs. USC Key Player to Watch

Jacob Clark, Quarterback – Missouri State

Clark enters 2025 as the centerpiece of Missouri State’s transition to the FBS, and his presence alone makes this opener more intriguing than your standard paycheck game. A former Minnesota transfer, Clark threw for over 3,600 yards last year and gave the Bears one of the most efficient passing attacks in the FCS. His ability to push the ball vertically will be tested against a USC secondary stocked with transfers and returnees eager to make a statement.

The Bears lost their top receiver and backfield production, meaning Clark has to develop rhythm with new weapons fast. If he finds even one reliable target to stretch USC’s safeties, Missouri State could land a few punches early and force Riley’s team to adjust. For a program making its FBS debut, Clark’s poise and accuracy are exactly the tools needed to give this game some staying power.

Missouri State vs. USC Prediction and Pick

Let’s not forget this is Week 1 and laying five touchdowns and change is a tall order in any opener. Missouri State has enough structure to sneak inside that number; the Bears put up 34 on Ball State last year in their lone FBS test, showing they can move the ball against higher competition.

Clark’s arm gives them an avenue for quick scores, especially against a USC defense that has improved but still has questions about its ability to generate consistent pass rush. On the other side, the Trojans are breaking in Jayden Maiava at quarterback and a rebuilt line, which suggests the offense may not hit full stride until later in the season.

Even if USC pulls away after halftime, it’s not hard to imagine Missouri State finding the end zone once or twice to keep the margin from ballooning. For a first-time FBS program, the Bears’ veteran line and experienced quarterback make them more dangerous than the typical sacrificial lamb. 

Pick: Missouri State +35.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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