Should the Phillies Extend José Alvarado this Offseason?

José Alvarado, the breakout star of the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen, is set to hit free agency after the 2023 season.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Nov 9, 2022 2:30 PM EST

In this story:

Over the final months of the 2022 season, José Alvarado broke out as one of the best relievers in baseball.

In 42 appearances from June onwards, he posted a 1.66 ERA and 15.16 K/9. The Philadelphia Phillies won 28 of the 42 games he appeared in. He played a key role in transforming the bullpen from a major question mark into a genuine strength.

Alvarado also appeared in an MLB-leading 12 games during the postseason, and while he wasn't always at his best, it was clear there was no one manager Rob Thomson trusted more with the game on the line. He was tied for the team lead in appearances in all four postseason series.

The 27-year-old flamethrower will return to the back end of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2023. He and Seranthony Domínguez will give the team a fearsome one-two punch for the late innings of close games.

After next season, however, his future is up in the air. The 2023 season will be Alvarado's seventh big-league campaign and his final year of arbitration eligibility. If he continues to pitch as well as he has, he should have plenty of suitors when he hits free agency next winter.

If the Phillies want to keep Alvarado in red pinstripes past next season, they must consider an extension. He was Dave Dombrowski’s diamond in the rough, and the time has come to pay him like the diamond he is.

There is a good argument to be made that the Phillies should extend Alvarado as soon as possible, too. For one thing, they could use the extension to cover his final arbitration year, thereby avoiding that stressful process. What’s more, Alvarado might pitch better in 2023 without the weight of a walk-year on his shoulders. After all, he has struggled with the mental side of the game before. The fewer distractions he has to face, the better.

The Phillies, for their part, would have one less thing to worry about next offseason. Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins will be free agents that winter, and Seranthony Domínguez will be in his last year of arbitration eligibility. If nothing else, Dombrowski might like to get an Alvarado extension out of the way sooner rather than later to make his own job easier.

On the other hand, one could argue — and fairly so — that it’s a bit too soon to offer Alvarado any serious money. He has been highly inconsistent throughout his career, and there’s no guarantee that he’s finally figured everything out. Thus, the Phillies might be better off waiting at least a few months into the 2023 season to see if Alvarado continues to pitch like a top-of-the-line reliever.

That being said, were I in charge, I’d say extend him before it’s too late. Any extension comes with some degree of risk for the team, but in this case, the pros outweigh the cons. The longer Dombrowski waits, the less likely he is to get the deal done, and the more likely Alvarado is to end up with another team come 2024.