Aaron Nola Is Chasing a Single-Season Phillies Franchise Record

With just two weeks left in the 2022 season, Aaron Nola has the highest single-season strikeout-to-walk ratio in Philadelphia Phillies history.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Sep 23, 2022 2:00 PM EDT

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Philadelphia Phillies

In his last outing, Aaron Nola reached a major milestone, becoming just the tenth Philadelphia Phillies pitcher to start 200 games. Now, as the season winds down, he has another opportunity to write his name in the Phillies' history books.

Nola currently has an 8.08 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has struck out 210 batters, while walking only 26. His K/BB leads the majors by a wide margin. And it doesn't just lead the majors.

With 13 games left to go in the regular season, Nola has the highest K/BB for a qualified starting pitcher in franchise history If he can keep it up over his final starts, he will set a new record in Philadelphia.

As we speak, the record-holder is Cliff Lee, who struck out 207 batters while walking only 28 back in 2013. Before him, it was Roy Halladay in 2010, who struck out 219 and walked 30. The full list is very impressive, full of very talented pitchers and John Coleman (sorry, John Coleman).

Cliff Lee: 7.39 K/BB (2013)
Roy Halladay: 7.30 K/BB (2010)
Curt Schilling: 5.50 K/BB (1997)
Jim Bunning: 4.76 K/BB (1964)
Robin Roberts: 3.93 K/BB (1956)
Grover Alexander: 3.77 K/BB (1915)
Ben Sanders: 3.67 K/BB (1888)
John Coleman: 3.31 K/BB (1883)

In order top the list at season's end, Nola must finish with a K/BB above 7.39. While it might seem like his 8.08 K/BB affords him a comfortable lead, the lead could slip away faster than one might think.

For example, if Nola makes two more starts and strikes out seven batters in each, he could walk no more than four batters total in order to set the record. That would leave him with 224 K, 30 BB, and 7.47 K/BB. That's certainly doable, especially for Nola, but those numbers also demonstrate how easy it could be for him to slip below Lee. One day of poor control or one particularly ungenerous umpire could prevent Nola from making Phillies history. If he were to walk one extra batter (five total), he would need additional six strikeouts (20 total) to offset that. That would mean ten strikeouts per game over his final two starts – a tall task for any pitcher.

If Nola gets a third start before the season is done, it would give him an additional opportunity to rack up strikeouts and therefore help his chances of making franchise history. Unfortunately, if Nola is starting during the final days of the season, it probably means Philadelphia is fighting tooth and nail for the final Wild Card spot.

With that in mind, Phillies fans who want too see Nola set a new team record should hope he can do it in just two more starts. As long as he pitches with the pinpoint control he has demonstrated all season, that shouldn't be a problem.