Bailey Falter Has Been Phillies' Most Reliable Starter of Second Half

Southpaw Bailey Falter has stepped up in a major way when the Philadelphia Phillies needed him most.

Author:
Alex Carr
Sep 14, 2022 6:00 PM EDT

In this story:

If a Philadelphia Phillies fan would have told you heading into the 2022 season that Bailey Falter would be the team's most reliable starting pitcher in the second half, you'd likely have assumed that the team was on another drought-extending, playoff-less trajectory.

Yet, one of the above statements reigns true. Hint: the Phillies are deep in the throes of a playoff race in mid-September.

Yes, much to the surprise of Phillies fans everywhere, Bailey Falter has stepped up in a big way, emerging as the team's most reliable starter since the All-Star Break. He has shown some real confidence, attacking hitters with a bite that he has lacked in previous stints in the majors.

That's been a big key for Falter: he hasn't shied away from hitters since his initial second half return on July 24. Instead, he's filled the strike zone, limiting free passes and generating more whiffs than ever.

This new mentality, combined with one small change, has driven Falter's recent success on the mound.

That small change? Falter is throwing his four-seam fastball, and he's throwing it more often than ever.

Falter goes full extension to deliver a pitch versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.
© Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

It is widely known that Falter's out-of-this-world extension is what makes him such an effective pitcher. He stands alone in the 100th percentile in all of the majors in extension off of the mound, which adds deceptive velocity and quality to all of his pitches.

No pitch in his arsenal benefits more from this unique trait than his aforementioned four-seam, his new go-to strike-stealer. The southpaw's fastball has generated a -5 run value this season, and hitters have only managed a .174 average against it, alongside a paltry .293 slugging percentage. Conversely, Falter's sinker has been tattooed in 2022 for a .511 SLG%, so it's no wonder the lefty has begun to favor the former. Yet, that hasn't always been the case.

On May 27, when Falter pitched against the New York Mets at Citi Field, he threw his sinker 63% of the time. Falter walked three batters in that game (more than he's walked in his last five starts combined.) He allowed five runs—two earned—and was rewarded with a trip back down to Triple-A.

When he last used his sinker as a primary pitch, Falter was going head-to-head with the Chicago Cubs on July 24, his first start of the second half. He allowed four runs over five innings in that contest, throwing the four-seam just 11% of the time, while the sinker saw a whopping 54% usage.

That's when the lefty decided to switch things up, a decision which has directly correlated to his success.

Falter saw immediate results in his next start versus the Pirates. Leading with the four-seam at a 44% usage, he tossed six innings of two-run baseball, striking out eight.

It's been more of the same over his last six starts. Falter has topped out as high as a 59% four-seam usage rate, which came against the Marlins on Sept. 7. In that span, he's managed a 2.52 ERA, has walked only three batters, and has thrown the best outings of his Phillies' career.

Since July 29, Falter leads Phillies starting pitchers in ERA (2.52), BB% (2.2), BAA (.212), WHIP (0.87), and multiple other categories.

What's most surprising about Falter's progress is that it genuinely appears sustainable. Sure, his .237 BABIP suggests there's some regression to be found along the line, but strong marks in ERA- (61), FIP- (90), xFIP (3.69), and SIERA (3.64), suggest that the southpaw's surface numbers aren't too far off from what his peripherals dictate.

Falter exits after a strong start versus the Marlins.
© Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

When the Phillies needed him most, Bailey Falter answered the call, and has been solid as a rock down the stretch for a team that desperately needed an arm. In fact, it is perfectly fair to say that the southpaw has pitched his way into the rotation conversation for the 2023 MLB season.

Falter is the most recent of a multitude of Phillies pitching development successes to come out of this season, including the likes of Andrew Bellatti, Jose Alvarado, Nick Nelson, and others.

Something has finally clicked for the 25-year-old out of Chino Hills, Calif. If he can continue to develop and grow, the young lefty could be a back-end fixture in the Phillies' rotation for some time to come.