Despite Maddening Journey, the Philadelphia Phillies are Right Where They Need to Be
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It was just a barely more than two weeks ago when the Philadelphia Phillies had a 4.5 game lead in the National League Wild Card race. They had a relatively favorable schedule heading down the stretch and they had been playing good baseball.
Then things fell apart. The Phillies went 11-14 in September, playing .440 baseball, once again leaning into their self-fulfilled prophecy of the dreaded "September Collapse."
That second Wild Card spot they occupied then became the third, and that 4.5 game lead dwindled, to at times, just half a game over the Milwaukee Brewers.
Now, Philadelphia sits two games ahead of the Brewers and hold the tiebreaker, so the magic number to clinch a postseason berth is just one. Either a Phillies win over the Houston Astros or a Milwaukee loss in the next three games will do the trick.
The odds, daresay, are in Philadelphia's favor.
Assuming the Phillies clinch the third and final spot in the postseason they will travel to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals in a three-game set. Had they maintained their second Wild Card position down the stretch they would have faced either the Atlanta Braves or the New York Mets.
In 2022, the Phillies hold an 8-11 record against the Braves and a 5-14 record against the Mets. Against the Cardinals? 4-3.
So all of the emotion, anger, and doubt that this team has bestowed upon itself and its fans during this maddening stretch of baseball might have actually worked out in their favor.
Who would've thought?
There is no "good" option when it comes to picking one of the three above teams to face in a playoff series away from Citizens Bank Park, but the Cardinals, the only team they have a winning record against this season, seems like the clear "best" option.
A rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suárez would undoubtedly play better against a Cardinals lineup that, much like Philadelphia's, is top heavy. There is also something to be said for having to face a team like the Braves or Mets that so intimately knows the Phillies' rotation.
A level of unfamiliarity with St. Louis could also be of huge benefit to helping the Phillies progress.
For Philadelphia and its fans, simply making the postseason is not enough. This team has too much talent and too large of a payroll to be content with the third and final postseason spot.
Perhaps their current position and "collapse" has played out to their benefit in the long term. Of course, they will need to play better baseball to see themselves progress further in October than just the Wild Card round.
Before that, they need to win just one more game in Houston.
If they can do that, then the Phillies might be right where they need to be.
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