How the Philadelphia Phillies Match Up Versus the Atlanta Braves in NLDS

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to take on the Atlanta Braves in a division rivalry-fueled NLDS.

Author:
Alex Carr
Oct 11, 2022 12:00 PM EDT

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It's no secret that the Philadelphia Phillies are the underdogs going into Game 1 of the National League Division Series.

The Atlanta Braves, on top of winning a World Series in 2021, won 101 games this season and were especially strong down the stretch. This is not their first postseason rodeo.

Both teams finalized their NLDS rosters on Tuesday, and each comes with a notable bullpen exclusion: the Braves will be without southpaw Tyler Matzek, who was their best pitcher in last year's postseason, while the Phillies are down a back-end option in David Robertson, their most experienced veteran arm.

These two teams matched up well during the regular season, though Atlanta came out on top. Their lineups proved to be of similar power level, but the Braves clearly had the pitching edge from both a rotation and bullpen perspective, thus explaining how they won the season series 11-8.

But anything can happen in the postseason.

While neither team has set an explicit rotation yet, the probables for the first two bouts are set to be:

Game 1: Ranger Suárez vs. Max Fried
Game 2: Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Wright

Clearly, the Braves hold the advantage in the inaugural game. While the Phillies have seen Fried well this season, Atlanta has a top-three lineup in baseball when it comes to punishing left-handed pitching. With his cool demeanor, Suárez will likely keep the Phillies in the game, but they stand at a big disadvantage at the outset of the series.

In Game 2 however, the Phillies send their ace to the bump. Zack Wheeler was outstanding in his last outing versus the Cardinals, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings of two-hit baseball. Wright has stymied the Phillies before, but Wheeler has pitched exceedingly well against Atlanta this year.

Past the first two contests, things get a bit foggy. The Braves could send out either Spencer Strider or Charlie Morton to stand off against Aaron Nola in game three.

One option is clearly preferable to the other. Strider has dominated the Phillies this season, and will likely come to play with even more adrenaline in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Phillies have hit Charlie Morton hard in 2022. They would surely love to see him in a high-stakes scenario.

Regardless of who Atlanta sends out, they'll find themselves a difficult matchup with Aaron Nola, who has been as clutch as they come over his last two starts.

Should there be a need for a Game 4, the assumption is that the Braves send the other one of Morton or Strider to the bump, leaving the Phillies with a decision to make.

Either they start Ranger Suárez on short rest, or utilize one of Noah Syndergaard, Bailey Falter, or Kyle Gibson, assuming they haven't been called upon already. Perhaps a combination of the two scenarios?

The conditional Game 5 is more of the same. Either Suárez takes to the hill on full rest (very much dependent on how he fares on Tuesday,) or Zack Wheeler pitches on short rest. The Braves will likely throw Max Fried again, regardless of his performance in Game 1.

In the end, three wins stand between Philadelphia and their first NLCS berth since 2010. Nobody said it would be easy, but it's sure to be must-watch baseball.