USATSI_18408919 — © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies Schedule Is About to Get a Lot Easier

The Philadelphia Phillies have faced a lot of tough opponents to start the season, but their schedule gets easier throughout the summer.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Jun 2, 2022 3:00 PM EDT

In this story:

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies aren't doing so great these days. After keeping their heads above water in April and finishing with a .500 record, they took a downward turn in May, going 10-18.

With the news that second baseman Jean Segura will miss 10-12 weeks with a broken finger and with Bryce Harper's sore elbow acting up again, the Phillies’ morale seems to be at an all-time low.

Thankfully, there is still reason for hope going forward. Following two more tough series, this time against the Los Angeles Angels and Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia's schedule is set to get a whole lot easier.

Thus far, Phillies opponents have had an average winning percentage of .552 (when not facing Philadelphia). That's an 89 to 90-win pace. In other words, the Phillies' average opponent this season has played like the 2022 San Francisco Giants (27-22, .551).

From here on out, however, their average opponent (again, not including games against the Phillies) has a winning percentage of .480. That's a 77 to 78-win pace – more like the 2019 Giants (77-85, .475).

Even better, the schedule seems to get easier and easier as the season goes on. Here's what Philadelphia's opponents look like by month:

June - .498 winning percentage, 80/81-win pace
July - .486 winning percentage, 78/79-win pace
August - .469 winning percentage, 76-win pace
September - .472 winning percentage, 76/77-win pace

From the looks of it, August and September will be especially crucial for the Phillies, which means it really is far too soon to give up on this team. By August, Segura will be healthy, Harper is planning to get back on the field, and Dave Dombrowski will have hopefully acquired some meaningful upgrades at the trade deadline.

The summer weather should help Philadelphia's big bats heat up, and their opponents – including the Reds, Pirates, Nationals, and Cubs – will have already traded away some of the only good players on their rosters.

The Phillies still have an uphill battle ahead of them. They'll need to play at a 93-win pace just to win 85 games. But with the schedule laid out the way it is, a run like that is well within the realm of possibility.

That being said, these strength of schedule calculations should be taken with a grain of salt. We cannot just take for granted that Philadelphia will rip through the competition for the rest of the year.

For one thing, each team's winning percentage through this point in the season is not necessarily reflective of how well that team will play moving forward. Players will get injured and players will return from the injured list. Trades will be made and prospects will be called up. Teams will go on hot streaks and teams will go on cold streaks.

Moreover, fans have seen the Phillies lose to bad teams time and again. Just a week before taking three of four from the Dodgers in LA, they were swept at home by the Texas Rangers. And let's not get started on how they've played against the Marlins recently...

Bryce Harper celebrates after crushing a home run against the Miami Marlins.
© Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Strength of schedule and opponents' winning percentage is just one small piece of the puzzle. Philadelphia still has to win a lot more than they lose going forward, and it is not a forgone conclusion that will happen.

However, the quality of opponents the Phillies are facing for the rest of the season is still going to make a significant difference. Regardless of exact winning percentages, it is clear that the Phillies' schedule puts them in a good position to win, and they need to capitalize on it.