The Phillies Should Stop at Nothing to Sign Justin Verlander

The Philadelphia Phillies are in need of another frontline starting pitcher. Justin Verlander should be their top target.

Author:
Alex Carr
Nov 14, 2022 6:52 PM EST

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Philadelphia Phillies

Free agency has begun around Major League Baseball. For the Philadelphia Phillies, this could be the most important offseason they've seen in quite some time - if not ever.

Philadelphia surpassed all expectations in 2022, clinching their first World Series berth since 2009, and doing so with - dare one say - relative ease.

However, a gritty, grindy six-game World Series against the "inevitable" Houston Astros revealed some clear flaws within the Phillies' roster construction. Perhaps the most glaring of them all: the Phillies didn't enter the postseason with enough trustworthy starting pitching.

It's an issue they're expected to fix this winter, and thus, the majority of the Phillies fanbase seems fixated on the tantalizing southpaw, Carlos Rodón.

Rodón toes the rubber against the Detroit Tigers.
© Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Rodón was heavily connected to the Phillies prior to the 2022 trade deadline, but the San Francisco Giants' asking price proved far too steep for Philadelphia to match. Instead, the team opted to trade for Noah Syndergaard, who was decent for the team down the stretch.

However, Rodón was issued a qualifying offer by San Francisco this past week, meaning that the Phillies would have to sacrifice both their second AND fifth round picks in next year's MLB Draft in order to sign him, as well as $1 million from their international bonus pool.

The Phillies' more glaring free agent need, instead of the rotation, resides at the shortstop position. Thus, if they were to sign both an infielder and a pitcher with a qualifying offer attached, the team would be forced to forfeit their second, third, fifth, and sixth picks in the 2023 MLB Draft. Far from ideal.

So, where else could the Phillies turn to plug their obvious rotation hole?

The answer was standing right in front of them throughout all of November: Justin Verlander.

Old Friends:

The Phillies and Justin Verlander may not go way back, but President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and the soon-to-be three-time Cy Young Award Winner sure do.

Dombrowski was the Tigers President of Baseball Operations and General Manager when the team drafted Verlander second overall in 2004. After just 20 starts in the minor leagues, Dombrowski knew Verlander was ready. He called the then 22-year-old up to the Majors in 2005, and never looked back.

(Feb. 2012) - Dave Dombrowski, Justin Verlander, and Jim Leyland share a moment during spring training.
© Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

That first-rounder from Virginia would go on to become one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. A six-time All-Star, Verlander collected a Rookie of the Year award, an MVP award, a Cy Young award, and a pitching triple crown across 13 years with the Detroit organization. He was the crown jewel of the Tigers for those thirteen years, and was treated as such.

Dombrowski signed the right-hander to two extensions in his time with Detroit, one for five years, $80 million, and then another worth a whopping $180 million over seven years. He has his fair share of experience in negotiating with the the starter and his representation.

Unfortunately, after Dombrowski was let go in 2015, Verlander soon followed. The Tigers traded him to Houston prior to the trade deadline in 2017, where he would go on to three more All-Star appearances, another Cy Young, and two World Series titles with the Astros, the second of which came in 2022, as Phillies fans surely know.

Forty and Thriving:

Verlander, unlike the aforementioned Rodón, was unable to be issued a qualifying offer this winter, as he'd already declined one from the Astros last season.

It's a good thing too, because the veteran is coming off of a career season... at age 39!

It's nearly unbelievable that a pitcher, even one of Justin Verlander's caliber, could dominate the way he has at such an advanced age. Yet, here we are.

In Benjamin Button-esque fashion, Verlander posted a 1.75 ERA across 175.0 innings of work in 2022. He walked just 29 hitters in that span while striking out 185, and posted an unfathomable 220 ERA+, alongside a minuscule 0.83 WHIP. He is a shoe-in for the American League Cy Young Award.

With peripherals like his, it's not farfetched to say that Verlander, health permitting, could dominate well into his forties. His best baseball is probably behind him, but the ace could easily head up a rotation the way he's pitched.

Keep the Payroll Clean:

While Verlander is sure to come with a hefty price tag, it's unlikely that he'll garner a deal any longer than three years.

Max Scherzer, who finished third in Cy Young voting at age-36 in 2021 after a stellar season, received a major payday of $130 million last winter. Yet, when finalized, the deal spanned over just three years, as the New York Mets were clearly wary of how Scherzer's arm might age.

While Verlander will almost certainly beat Scherzer's annual average value of $43.3 million, he and his representation will likely find it hard to negotiate for a third year.

That said, MLB Trade Rumors has Verlander mocked for three years, $120 million, which falls short of Scherzer's number (though, in fairness, Verlander is three years older than him.) Conversely, Carlos Rodón is projected for a five-year, $140 million deal.

Coincidentally, were Verlander to receive that elusive third year from the Phillies, it would line up surprisingly well with the way their payroll is currently constructed.

The (presumed) reigning AL Cy Young winner would be under team control until 2026. The Phillies have the following contracts expiring in that time period:

Aaron Nola (2024), Rhys Hoskins (2024), Zack Wheeler (2025), J.T. Realmuto (2026), Kyle Schwarber (2026).

Basically, every long-term contract the Phillies possess, outside of Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos', is also set to clear the payroll heading into 2026. Verlander slots snuggly into the blueprint.

The team has shown a clear willingness to vault the luxury tax threshold once again this season. A deal the size of Verlander's, especially given its length, shouldn't prove too high of a mountain to climb for Dombrowski and company.

Children Will Listen:

Perhaps most important of all, besides paying a premium price for the ace of their pitching staff, the Phillies will simultaneously have paid for the best mentor that money can buy.

Philadelphia has three of the most promising pitching prospects in baseball waiting in the wings in Andrew Painter, Mick Abel, and Griff McGarry. All three of these young, electric arms could work their way to debuts during the 2023 season.

Funnily enough, both Abel and Painter have drawn comparisons to Verlander at various points in their careers. Who better to serve as their mentor, teacher, and teammate than one of the greatest pitchers of all time?

Acquiring a mentor on the free agent market is a more common practice than one would think. Back in 2020, the Atlanta Braves signed Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18 million deal. Hamels would go on to appear in just one game in a Braves uniform, and provided no on-field impact for the team whatsoever.

And yet, the impact he provided in the clubhouse, and in the Braves' future was immeasurable.

At the time of Hamels inking his contract with Atlanta, in an interview with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Braves' southpaw Max Fried was asked about what the signing meant to him:

"Extremely excited. He's most frequently the person I get compared to, skinny left-hander. ... Everything I've heard he's obviously an extremely hard worker, extremely dedicated and obviously has been successful for a very long time."

Max Fried, on multiple occasions, has gone on to mention just how much having Hamels around during the 2020 season helped shape and develop him as a left-handed pitcher. While these things aren't linear, the Phillies could surely hope for a similar effect from Verlander's presence.

When all is said and done, the Phillies will be looking to assemble a 2023 team that can bring them back to the World Series. Adding Justin Verlander to an already strong starting rotation has the potential to do just that. Sure, he's older than your average ace, but the 40-year-old is a generation-defining arm, and inarguably one of the greatest to ever toe the rubber. The kind of impact that presence can have on a team and its young talent is incalculable.

By investing in Verlander, the Phillies would impact their present roster, as well as their future one. He brings with him a Hall of Fame career, and a lifetime worth of experience. It feels like an offer the Phillies can't, and shouldn't, refuse.