Who Is the Philadelphia Phillies' Game 1 Starter for the World Series?

With four off days before the World Series begins, manager Rob Thomson will have his pick between the Phillies' two aces for the Game 1 start.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Oct 24, 2022 2:00 PM EDT

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Philadelphia Phillies

When the World Series begins on Friday, the Philadelphia Phillies will have one of two pitchers on the mound: Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola. After winning the NLCS in five games, the team will enjoy four days off before the World Series, giving manager Rob Thomson the luxury of setting up his rotation exactly how he wants to.

An outsider might presume Wheeler would be the natural choice. After all, he started Game 1 of both the Wild Card Series and the League Championship Series, and he was the Cy Young runner-up just last season. By the traditional stats he looks like Philadelphia’s clear ace:

Wheeler — 12-7, 2.82 ERA
Nola — 11-13, 3.25 ERA

The truth, however, is that Nola has been every bit as dominant as Wheeler this year. Nola easily could have been the Game 1 starter for the NLWCS, the NLDS, or the NLCS, but the timing just didn't work out. While Wheeler won more games and allowed fewer runs, the advanced metrics mostly favor Nola, who is, after all, a former Cy Young finalist in his own right.

Wheeler — 9.59 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 2.89 FIP, 3.10 xERA
Nola — 10.32 K/9, 1.27 BB/9, 0.83 HR/9, 2.58 FIP, 2.74 xERA

Ultimately, Thomson could name either one the Game 1 starter and it wouldn't be a wrong decision. So, with that in mind, which pitcher has the inside track on the coveted job?

On the one hand, Nola will be more rested. He hasn't pitched since the second game of the NLCS on Oct. 19. Nola could open the World Series with a fresh arm, thereby giving Wheeler an additional day off before his start in Game 2. Wheeler has been a much stronger pitcher this season when he has an extra day of rest, so this plan could ensure the Phillies get the best performance out of both their aces.

That being said, it is important to remember that whoever pitches Game 1 will also be in line to start a potential Game 5 (or even Game 4 on short rest). That means the Game 1 starter is more likely to get two outings in the World Series – and his second start could come with the series on the line. If Thomson has reason to believe one of Wheeler or Nola will perform better against the Houston Astros, he should prioritize that pitcher for Game 1, regardless of rest. This is the postseason after all.

Zack Wheeler is having a dominant postseason for the Philadelphia Phillies.
© Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Nola struggled in his last start, allowing six earned runs in 4.2 innings pitched. He gave up seven hits and two home runs. Wheeler, on the other hand, was practically unhittable in the NLCS, going 13 innings across two starts and allowing just two runs on four hits; he struck out 16. If Thomson wants to play the hot hand, Wheeler is his man.

On the other hand, Thomson could choose to go with the hot hand against the Astros. Nola was dominant in his last start against Houston, pitching six scoreless innings on Oct. 3 to clinch the Phillies a playoff berth. He was terrific the last time he faced the Astros too, all the way back in 2017, throwing another six scoreless frames and striking out ten. It was the first double-digit strikeout game of his career.

Wheeler, for what it's worth, has never faced Houston, not in 2022 nor ever in his career. That could work to his advantage – the Astros will be unfamiliar with his stuff – but it also means he's a bit more of an unknown commodity against Houston. Rob Thomson knows Nola can beat the Astros, so he might feel more comfortable tapping him for Game 1.

Could Aaron Nola be the Phillies' Game 1 starter in the World Series?
© Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Finally, there are the matchups to consider. Houston has a powerful lineup that can do damage against any pitcher, but they aren't without their weaknesses. In particular, the Astros have had trouble hitting cutters. Indeed, the cut fastball is really the only pitch Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker have struggled against this season.

Both Wheeler and Nola throw a cutter (although Wheeler's is sometimes misidentified as a slider), but Wheeler uses his more often and as a more important part of his repertoire. For instance, Nola almost never uses his cutter against left-handed batters, whereas Wheeler regularly does. Alvarez and Tucker are both left-handed. What's more, Nola instead relies heavily on his changeup against lefties, and Alvarez has absolutely mashed changeups this season. Thus, Wheeler's stuff is perhaps better suited to shut down Houston's dangerous lineup.

It will be interesting to see who Thomson designates as his Game 1 starter. Nola's well-rested arm seems likely to give him the advantage, but there are several factors that could tip the scale in Wheeler's favor. It really could go either way, and fortunately for Philadelphia, neither choice would be a mistake.