Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury may save the Bucks from themselves

Losing Giannis Antetokounmpo for another set of weeks may be the one way the Milwaukee Bucks can keep him in the long-term. While that may seem paradoxical, Giannis’ latest calf injury suffered vs the Denver Nuggets on Friday night will push the franchise in a clear direction: down.

Or up, if you are looking at Tankathon standings. Milwaukee is up to eighth in lottery odds as of Saturday morning, breaking a tie with Memphis thanks to that Denver loss. The Charlotte Hornets, shockingly capable with their core players all on the floor together, are only one game worse than Milwaukee now.

The Bucks’ descent will almost assuredly continue. On the season Milwaukee has a net rating of -9.9 when Giannis is off the floor, a mark which would rank 29th among all teams this season. They’ve been losing games with Giannis lately: the Bucks should have no problem losing more of them without him.

The silver lining of this abysmal on-court product is its timing. Milwaukee doesn’t control its own draft pick in any season until 2031, but the stars have aligned for a down year in Milwaukee right now. The Bucks owe a swap, not an outright pick, and the other pick in the swap belongs to New Orleans.

Milwaukee gets the worse end of the deal, but thanks to the Pelicans’ own awful basketball that still equals a top 10 — or better — pick. (The better half of the pick is heading to Atlanta thanks to the immediately infamous Derik Queen trade, but Atlanta’s fortunes don’t impact the Bucks at all. It’s just their pick or the Pelicans pick, whichever is worse.)

New Orleans has the second-worst record in the NBA, without signs of improvement in recent weeks. Even if the Bucks own pick jumped to win the lottery, Milwaukee’s consolation prize would likely be a top 5 pick anyway. If there was ever a year for the Bucks to absolutely stink in this decade, it’s 2026.

A reality check on the trade market

The other benefit of such an unfortunate injury to Milwaukee’s superstar could be the Bucks giving up on adding talent this NBA Trade Deadline. The Bucks have been linked to a host of names, from Michael Porter Jr., to Ja Morant, to Zach LaVine, to Miles Bridges, et cetera.

Every report about Milwaukee’s approach to the deadline has been the same: the Bucks want to add talent to turn their season around. Even the most optimistic souls in Milwaukee’s front office can’t really believe this team, that has underachieved so drastically with Giannis, is one Zach LaVine (or whoever) away from making a run this season.

I’ve been open to a “win now” move, if the price is right. Outgoing salary in the form of Kyle Kuzma and/or Bobby Portis, maybe Kevin Porter Jr. ahead of his looming player option, or a pick swap to add talent is one thing. If the Bucks sent Rollins, or an actual first round pick, or even an added swap on this year’s pick, they’d likely make marginal at best this season while being even more asset-poor in the future.

While Bucks GM Jon Horst has successfully convinced Giannis to re-sign multiple times, he’s usually had the benefit of optimism on his side. Trades for Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard both enticed Giannis to sign on the dotted line — both times before the Bucks actually played with their shiny new guard.

Even if Horst acquired a player who Giannis absolutely loved in the next two weeks, it wouldn’t — couldn’t — lead to a new extension immediately. Due to the CBA’s restrictive extension rules, Giannis can’t re-up again until October. So a splashy trade wouldn’t just be theoretical. If the big move didn’t actually make the Bucks any better, Giannis would still have just one guaranteed season left on his contract. And he’d be acutely aware that Milwaukee would have fewer cards to play in the offseason to improve the roster.

Now, though, if the Bucks can hold onto Giannis through the trade deadline and sell him on this being a gap year, Milwaukee is set to have real juice this summer. The Bucks have struggled to add value in the draft to be sure, but Milwaukee also hasn’t picked in the lottery for a full decade. The franchise’s last top 10 pick was Thon Maker in 2016.

Unless there’s a miraculous development among the non-Giannis Bucks, Milwaukee is now set to be selecting a top prospect for the first time in 10 years. The 2026 NBA Draft coming and going also opens up another future first in 2033 that could be traded along with Milwaukee’s 2031 first round pick.

Kuzma’s contract descends year over year and ends after 2026-27, so Milwaukee would be armed with an expiring deal, two future firsts and a future swap, a top 10 pick in the current draft, plus pieces like Rollins, Green, and Myles Turner to build around.

Is that enough to entice Giannis to stay in Milwaukee? That depends on the players selected or acquired via trade, and which other teams come calling for the superstar’s services. There’s no guarantee, but there’s also no guarantee that the Bucks grinding out for the 10th seed would sway Giannis either, even if they pull it off.

Can't keep going down a dead end road

That’s why it’s time to go the other way. Make it clear the vision is to compete starting in 2027. The Bucks can and should go even farther than just sitting on their current picks. Milwaukee’s waiving of Damian Lillard opened up their cap outlook, and the Bucks have real trade flexibility.

Sending players like Gary Trent Jr., Amir Coffey, or Andre Jackson Jr. in exchange for bigger expiring contracts and pick compensation to help teams dodge an apron or the tax line altogether should be a priority now.

For example, a Gary Trent Jr. return to Toronto in exchange for Ochai Agbaji and the Lakers 2026 second round pick gets Toronto a shooter plus relief below the tax line. Milwaukee would still have nearly $9 million in space below the tax following that theoretical trade, so the Bucks should really be open for business to add some ammo to their war chest.

Outside of any misled confidence in their current roster and coaching staff, the often stated desire of Giannis wanting to win more, fast, surely has played a role in the Bucks’ continued aggression. That is understandable and maybe even admirable, when the plan to accumulate those wins is sound.

The Bucks current plan is clearly unsound. If it were a foundation, it’d be crumbling into Lake Michigan by now. Pitching Giannis on a real vision of contending in Milwaukee again is the Bucks best bet. That vision requires taking a small step backward to then leap ahead. It’s the only realistic path to keeping Giannis and surrounding him with the talent to compete in the East.

If that pitch fails and Giannis decides it’s time to leave the only NBA franchise he’s ever known, embracing the gap year is still the best move. The Bucks adding a top prospect, potentially some other draft picks, plus whatever they’d get in return for Giannis leaves them with their best path to rebuild for the franchise’s next era.

Even if it doesn’t lead to Giannis Antetokounmpo remaining with the team, the plan for the Milwaukee Bucks is clear. Take some lumps, lick the resulting wounds, and borrow a phrase from the franchise’s past: own the future.