A December Update to the Productive Sophomore Query
The utilization of statistical queries to discover basketball talent has increased in popularity in recent years. While we reviewed the players who are currently meeting the threshold for the Productive Young Athlete query earlier this month, which has a "stick" rate of 78%, the Productive Sophomore Query applies the same three criteria to sophomores instead of freshmen.
Described in-depth in an article from earlier this year, there were 104 sophomores throughout the ten college seasons from 2010-2019 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +7.5, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. Exactly 50% of them played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA. The purpose of this query is to find players who are still underclassmen (but not freshmen) that are being trusted to play almost a majority of their team's minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.
Introduction
Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played five or more seasons in the NBA. Prospects in the 2019 NBA Draft met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons. Additionally, all prospects with at least one dunk so far this season are included in this article due to the significant chance that those players can still reach four dunks by the end of the season.
As of December 19th, 2023, there are 13 players on track to meet the Productive Sophomore Query for the 2024 NBA Draft. The thirteen are split up into four separate Box Plus-Minus thresholds for sophomores. Each separate threshold has a different "stick" rate and sample size that will be mentioned.
Productive Sophomore Query: 50% Threshold
Two players in college basketball are currently on track to meet the Productive Sophomore Query and have a high enough Box Plus-Minus (+7.5 or better) to meet the minimum threshold. These players are sophomores who are playing at least 40% of their team's minutes, have a Box Plus-Minus of at least +7.5, and are on track to meet the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks.
List in order of lowest Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to highest BPM
Caden Pierce, Princeton
Pierce is a 6-foot-6 forward for the Tigers who's averaging 14 points per game with a 9.8 offensive rebounding percentage, 25.9 defensive rebounding percentage, 17.9 assist percentage, 2.7 steal percentage, and 2.9 block percentage. He's also finishing 69% of his attempts at the rim (68 total attempts) and is in the 88th percentile as a cutter. While his shooting profile could improve, Pierce may still be a name to monitor throughout the season due to his size, rebounding impact, and defensive event creation. Interestingly enough, his brother is Alec Pierce, a receiver on the Indianapolis Colts.
Alex Karaban, UConn
Karaban is a 6-foot-8 forward who's averaging 15 points per game while shooting 35% from three on an impressive 11 attempts per 100 possessions while converting 83% of his attempts at the free throw line through his two seasons (64 total attempts). In addition to an impressive shooting profile is a 6% offensive rebounding rate, 1.6 steal percentage, and 3.7 block percentage. Lastly, Karaban is finishing 80% of his attempts at the rim (46 total attempts) while being in the 97th percentile as a cutter so far this season. While it should be noted that Karaban is a redshirt sophomore and has an unorthodox shooting form, his statistical profile indicates that he could be drafted after this season.
Productive Sophomore Query: 55% threshold
When you increase the Box Plus-Minus threshold to 8.0 rather than 7.5, the sample size drops from 104 potential prospects to 78, but increases the "stick" rate from 50% to 55%. These two players below are sophomores who are playing at least 40% of their team's minutes, have a Box Plus-Minus of at least 8.0, and are on track to meet the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks.
Nick Davidson, Nevada
Davidson is a 6-foot-8 prospect for Nevada who's averaging 10 points per game while shooting 81.5% from the free throw line over two seasons (119 total attempts). Last season, he converted 36% of his 3-point attempts (7 3PA/100 possessions) but is only shooting 24% from three this season on 4.9 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. However, he's still been impactful in a variety of other ways -- generating a 0.5 free throw rate, 8.3 offensive rebounding percentage and a 6.6 block percentage this season. Additionally, he's finished 75% of his attempts at the rim (36 total attempts).
Xaivian Lee, Princeton
The second Princeton Tiger on this list, Lee is a 6-foot-3 guard who went viral last week for a his crafty handles and finishes at the rim. Highlights aside, Lee has also been extremely productive so far this season. He's averaging 18 points, five rebounds, 3.3 assists, one steal, and 0.5 blocks per game on 49/40/84 shooting splits so far this season. Lee is also converting 61% of his attempts at the rim (61 total) attempts, and has been unassisted on 59.4% of his total made field goals this season. Lastly, he's in the 94th percentile in points per possession in pick-and-roll plus passes possessions so far this season. Lee is undoubtedly someone to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Productive Sophomore Query: 64% threshold
The next significant threshold is the Box Plus-Minus increase from 8.0 to 8.5. This drops the sample size 78 potential prospects to 55, but increases the "stick" rate from 55% to 64%. Let's take a look at who the two current sophomores playing at least 40% of their team's minutes, have at least one dunk on the season, and have a Box Plus-Minus within the range of 8.5 and 9.0 so far this season.
Judah Mintz, Syracuse
Mintz is a 6-foot-4 guard for Syracuse who declared for the 2023 NBA Draft but ultimately decided to return to the Orange for his sophomore season. Mintz is averaging just shy of 20 points per game while also recording 3.6 assists and 2.2 steals per game. He's also shooting 78% from the free throw line (101 total attempts already this season) and is drawing 0.73 free throws per field goal attempt. Perhaps what's most impressive is Mintz' increase from shooting 29.4% on catch-and-shoot threes last season to 57% so far this season (while only 14 of such attempts so far). Lastly, Mintz has converted 62% of his shots at the rim (68 attempts) and has been unassisted on a significant 52% of his field goal makes.
Kel'el Ware, Indiana
Ware, a former 5-star recruit, is a 7-foot big man for the Hoosiers. He's averaging 16 points while shooting 72% from the free throw line over two seasons and averaging 43% from beyond the arc on 14 attempts so far this season. He's also generating a .524 free throw rate, a 7.3 offensive rebounding percentage, 28 defensive rebounding percentage, and 6.5 "stock" (steal plus block) percentage. Lastly, Ware is also in the 86th percentile in points per possessions for Post-Ups (including passes) and is widely considered a prospect who's likely to be drafted after this season.
Productive Sophomore Query: 71% threshold
The final threshold before reaching too small of a sample size to be meaningful is the Box Plus-Minus increase from 8.5 to 9.0. This decreases the sample size from 55 potential prospects to 41, but increases the "stick" rate from 64% to 71%. There's seven sophomores in college basketball who are currently on track to play at least 40% of their team's minutes, have at least one dunk on the season, and have a Box Plus-Minus of at least 9.0.
Donovan Dent, New Mexico
Dent is a 6-foot-2 guard for New Mexico who's averaging 17 points, 6.6 assists, 1.9 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game so far this season. He's generating an impressive 39.1 assist percentage, while also creating 79% of his own field goal makes so far this season. Defensively, he's also recording a 3.3 steal percentage and 2.2 block percentage. While 6-foot-2 guards come with skepticism from front offices, Dent has a 3.5 Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM). Eight of the 13 (61.5%) undersized guards who had a DBPM of 3.0 or more in the year they declared stuck in the NBA or are on track to.
Donovan Clingan, UConn
One of the most highly touted returning prospects, Clingan is a 7-foot-2 big for the Huskies who's averaging 14 points per game while recording an incredible 15.5 offensive rebounding percentage and 10.1 block percentage. Clingan is also converting 73% of his layups (52 attempts) and is in the 98th percentile in Post-Ups on 49 possessions so far this season. He's widely considered a first-round pick.
Richie Saunders, BYU
Saunders is a 6-foot-5 guard for BYU who's averaging 11 points per game while shooting 72% from the free throw line (25 attempts). He's also recording a 7.9 offensive rebounding percentage and 4.6 "stock" percentage while finishing 90% of his attempts at the rim (30 attempts), 37% of his other two pointers (19 attempts), and shooting a serviceable 37% on catch-and-shoot threes (30 attempts). While not garnering much publicity right now, Saunders may be a name to keep in mind as the season goes on.
Otega Oweh, Oklahoma
Oweh is a 6-foot-5 guard for the Sooners averaging 15 points per game while shooting 74% from the free throw line (27 attempts) and 75% from three (only 12 attempts). He's also recording a 5 offensive rebounding percentage and an impressive 7.4 "stock" percentage while finishing 68% of his attempts at the rim (59 attempts) and 58% from the midrange (19 attempts). A player many expected to have this sophomore breakout, Oweh is firmly on draft radars currently.
Ryan Dunn, Virginia
Widely considered one of the best defensive prospects in college basketball, Dunn is a 6-foot-8 wing who's garnering a 5.7 steal percentage and 11.5 block percentage to go along with a 6.9 offensive rebounding percentage. Dunn is also converting 71% of his rim attempts (41 total attempts). If Dunn can continue to improve his free throw and catch-and-shoot percentages, he has the potential to be a lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Kyle Filipowski, Duke
A 7-foot big man for Duke, Filipowski declared for the draft after his freshman season but ultimately decided to return. He's averaging 18 points per game this season to go along with 3 assists, 9 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game this season. Filipowski also has potential to space the floor in the NBA, as he's converted 76% of his free throw attempts over his two seasons at Duke and is shooting 36% on his catch-and-shoot three attempts this season (28 attempts). The sophomore is widely considered a potential first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State
The last potential prospect on this list, with a Box Plus-Minus of 13.3, is Tamin Lipsey. He's averaging 15.5 points, 6 assists, 6 rebounds, and 3.5 steals per game while shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc on 3.6 attempts per game. At only 6-foot-1, Lipsey has an impressive 6.6 offensive rebounding percentage as well and is converting 61% of his attempts at the rim (44 attempts). While it's becoming increasingly difficult for undersized guards to stick in the NBA, 6-foot-1 guards have actually seen a recent increase in success in the NBA as 76% of 6-foot-1 guards (13-of-17) drafted from the 2013-2022 draft classes have stuck in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.
Something to Keep in Mind
It's important to keep in mind that a player's Box Plus-Minus numbers change on a game-by-game basis and each player could be in a different thresholds or not meet the Productive Sophomore Query at all by next week. Additionally, many players outside of these thresholds may enter them by the end of the season as well. The purpose of doing an update every month or so is to help discover players that may be flying under the radar at this point in the season or to help confirm what scouts may be seeing on tape from a production and statistical standpoint.
All play-by-play data referenced is courtesy of Synergy Sports.
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