Chet Holmgren Has Arrived — And He's As Intriguing As We Thought
I've been looking forward to writing about Chet Holmgren. Not that I couldn't before, but it would have been all speculative, and forgive me, but Summer League performance isn't exactly that exciting.
Finally, Holmgren is here. More importantly, he's living up to the hype.
The 7-footer was number one on my 2022 Big Board - an opinion I most certainly wasn't unique in having - due to a series of factors, including size, on-ball skill, shooting upside, rebounding, raw shot-blocking, and down the line playmaking.
We're three games into his career, and he's seemingly living up to most of those areas by netting 15.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks over the course of 27 nightly minutes.
What I find additionally intriguing, outside of the numbers, is the fact that his play seems to look even better than the digits above.
(Let's remember this is early in the year. We need to go off data without much of sample behind it.)
Holmgren looks patient. He isn't forcing actions, and he's toeing the balance between moving off the ball and attacking off the bounce very well. He won't spend too much time lingering outside before he'll put the ball on the deck and surprise defenders by suddenly bursting through with a power dribble, and using his long strides to get to the basket. Most rookies are still finding their legs, and their spots on the floor, but he's already making sure to remind defenses of his presence.
Despite having an incredibly thin frame, Holmgren is actively fighting and working for positioning. He's getting bullied - which was inevitable to some extent - but he isn't backing down. That's the marks of a young man ready to lead by example, and setting a precedence for his teammates.
He's also taking exactly the right type of long-range shots.
He isn't hurling them off just to get up a certain quota. Instead he's preferring to step into them, in rhythm, to optimize results. He won't continue hitting that shot at the rate that he is (6-of-11 on the year), but that may not matter as long as he's found a steady way to attempt those shots, and thus find his own way.
Defensively, shot-blocking and positional defense are often two different things. Holmgren however gets blocks off the right angles. He rotates in time, not giving up his own man too early or too late for the offense to dish off, and he's still collecting those blocks.
He struggles against players who are stronger and more physical. Chicago's Andre Drummond gave him the business in his debut. But Holmgren seems to endure, knowing he'll be able to finesse himself to shot contests of reasonable quality, which is frankly more than you can ask for at this stage, especially for a guy weighing in roughly 200 pounds.
Holmgren will have plenty of games this season where it isn't all rainbows and lollypops. He's going to get manhandled. He's going to get popped in the face multiple times, like he was by Nikola Jokić in Oklahoma City's recent loss to the Nuggets.
He's also going to go through stretches where opponents are prepared for his rotations, forcing him to adjust.
It's perfectly natural.
But he's also going to experience tremendous highs, solely off the fact that he's a walking matchup nightmare who can take most big men off the dribble, and follow that up by splashing a triple in their face.
I'm guessing we'll see more of the latter, but even if that's not the case, Holmgren has already proven his skill set belongs, and now it's on him to learn. After all, that's his most crucial assignment this season.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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