Chet Holmgren’s Potential Case for Rookie of the Year

For months on end, Victor Wembanyama was heralded as the greatest basketball prospect since LeBron James. And in late-June, those claims were realized with his selection No. 1 overall by the San Antonio Spurs.

After a polarizing Summer League performance, Wembanyama continued to garner hype.

But in an awards prediction piece released on Tuesday, ESPN projected a different 7-footer to come away with the award: Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren.

So why the sudden change of heart? Is Wembanyama not the prospect we thought he was?

And the answer to that lies more in Holmgren’s case than it does Wembanyama’s faults, which are few and far between.

Drafted second overall in the 2022 NBA Draft, Holmgren shares an eerily similar skillset to Wembanyama, with slightly more “center” aspects than the rangy forward skills Wembanyama often portrays.

The bones of Holmgren’s game are built around his premier shot-blocking skills, elite ambidextrous interior finishing and perimeter-adjacent skillset, both off and on-ball. Even more, nearly all of those things, especially in tandem with his length, will fill major holes for the OKC Thunder next season.

On top of being a highly-touted prospect himself, Holmgren has a few other things working in his favor, too.

Other high picks to have lost their initial rookie season due to injury have fared well, thus far. No. 1 picks Blake Griffin and Ben Simmons missed their entire first seasons and bounced back to win Rookie of the Year. Similarly, current MVP Joel Embiid missed two seasons and managed to put together an exceptionally strong season in his debut year.

Suffice to say, don’t sleep on what a year learning the ins-and-outs of the NBA can do.

The other element, albeit much less important, will be team success. The Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams and more, are slated to be a decent bit better than the Spurs.

At the end of the day, team success shouldn’t factor too much into the final Rookie of the Year selection. But in a potentially close race, producing on a 40-win team opposed to one hanging around the 20’s could be hard to ignore.

All in all, Holmgren’s preseason case does indeed have legs to stand on. And the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year race is sure to be an exciting one.

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