Evaluating the NBA Draft Lottery’s Recent History; Could we see a Shake-Up?

The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is just a few days away, with a good chunk of the league awating its fate ahead of a potentially transformational draft.

The ’26 class has as many as four top-tier talents in AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson, all of which are set to change franchises for the better. Given the strength of the top-four, all 14 teams are hoping to see a jump.

Under the current lottery format, jumping via lesser odds have nearly become the norm. Below, we’ll look at how the NBA Draft lotteries shook out under the flattened odds:

2019

The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery marked the first under the changed odds, and immediately gave us one of the more interesting results. Three teams jumped as many as six spots, with the Hawks jumping up seven. The Pelicans and Grizzlies were able to grab Zion Williams and Ja Morant first and second, respectively, leaving all of the league’s top losers falling.

2020

The 2020 draft lottery wouldn’t see the same level of fireworks, but did see the Hornets rise five spots to nab LaMelo Ball, which has had obvious ripple effects across the league. The Wolves won with a two-spot jump in grabbing Anthony Edwards, and the Bulls jumped three spots as well.

2021

The 2021 lottery kicked off a string of lesser movement, with the Pistons cashing in on the top odds to land Cade Cunninghma, jumping just one spot. The Rockets slipped one spot, and the Cavaliers jump up two spots in what many considered a three-man draft. The Raptors ended up the biggest winners, jumping three spots to nab Scottie Barnes fourth overall.

2022

The 2022 lottery saw little movement as well, with the Magic moving up one spot, the Thunder two and the Kings three spots. The Rockets and Pistons both slipped, though there were no real surprises.

2023

The 2023 lottery was one of the more anticipated ever, with the grand prize of Victor Wembanayama on the table. The Spurs won with a two-spot jump, following by two-spot leaps from the Hornets and Trail Blazers as well. The class didn’t see wild movement overall, but was still the most consequential in finding Wembanyama’s landing spot.

2024

In 2024, the lottery craziness returned, with the Hawks jumping a then-record nine spots to grab Zaccharie Risacher. The Rockets were just behind with a six-spot jump to No. 3 to grab Reed Sheppard, leaving all of the Pistons, Hornets, Trail Blazers, Raptors and Grizzlies to fall.

2025

Last year’s draft lottery officially usurped whatever the previous holder for madness was. The Mavericks cashed in on just a 1.8% chance to land Flagg, jumping a record 10 spots. Even more, the Spurs jumped six spots to grab top guard Dylan Harper, and the 76ers were able to keep their pick in grabbing VJ Edgecombe.

Conclusion:

Of the seven lotteries, we’ve now seen major movement in four of them, with seven teams jumping a minimum of six spots in that span. Ultimately, there will be no predicting what will happen Sunday — former movement won’t be indicative of more or less this year. Though it’s clear that a shake-up isn’t off the table.

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