A Holistic Evaluation of Dylan Harper's Statistical Profile

Dylan Harper has been truly absurd as a driver and finisher to start the season, in a very good way. In the halfcourt, he's shooting 71% at the rim despite over half of his shots coming there and nearly three-quarters of them being self-created -- numbers on par with James Harden and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander when they were prospects.

Dylan Harper has been unstoppable getting to and finishing at the rim so far. Comparing him to coveted jumbo guard prospects of the past reveals how dominant of a start he's gotten off to.

He ranks 1st in Rim Rate, FG%, and Dunk Rate while self-creating 71% (!) of those looks. pic.twitter.com/2do1v8cmCV
— Maurya K. (KR) (@TheFlarescreen) November 30, 2024

Yet, there are very real and apparent flaws in Harper's profile that hold him back from being the No. 2 or even No. 1 prospect in the class that many are ready to crown him as.

Harper is shooting very poorly on non-rim twos, which includes floaters, mid-range jumpshots, and some hook shots further away from the rim. He's currently at 23% on 24 total non-rim 2s, along with 28% from three and 78% from the line. The non-rim two percentages certainly won't remain this bad considering he was at 36% on 174 of those shots in his pre-NCAA sample, but his touch profile overall is fairly wonky.

On top of that, Harper's stock (steals plus blocks) generation is essentially non-existent for someone who boasts a near 6-foot-10 wingspan. He's averaging a 1.7 steal rate and 0.9 block rate thus far, combining for a sub-3% stock rate.

The integration of poor non-rim two efficiency and low stocks is one that's truly unprecedented among rim pressure creators. This Bart Torvik query shows drafted freshman with elite rim pressure but poor non-rim two efficiencies while this query shows those with poor stock rates. The two almost never intersect. Colin Sexton and Tyrese Maxey are the only ones in either query with a sub-3% stock rate, but both are superior shotmakers to Harper.

Historically, prospects with outlier-low stock rates and non-great shooting profiles have had low hit rates as well. Harper is certainly ahead of most with his finishing, but the rest of his profile will have to come around before he can be crowned as a franchise cornerstone.

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