How Team Success In The NBA Can Change Draft Behavior

Last season, the Boston Celtics made the NBA Finals. If the chips fall right, they might repeat that success this year as well.

One of the primary reasons for Boston's success is obviously the combined star talents of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but it goes deeper than that. The Celtics have the deepest rotation of two-way players in the league, effectively forcing teams to having to adjust to their presence on both ends of the court.

It won't be long before teams around the NBA take notice and begin to tear down their rosters, only to attempt a similar build. Why spend significant amounts of money on players you know will be run off the floor in the postseason, due to limitations on either side?

(I'm looking at you Duncan Robinson and Matisse Thybulle.)

This approach will surely have noticeable consequences for one-way draft prospects too, who will be less prioritized and fall on draft boards. We've already seen how 3-&-D wings have gotten a bump in draft stock in recent years, but this is going to go deeper than that. Point-of-attack defenders, who can produce offensively, will become key players to target early, as they offer a substantial baseline of talent, which can be further improved upon.

We've seen draft corrections in the past.

In the early 2000s, athletic players were all the rage. It didn't matter if their athletic ability were significantly ahead of their basketball acumen. The logic went that the skills would come.

Some Stromile Swifts later, teams started to understand that athletic ability - while nice to have - had to factor less in their evaluation processes. Players with high skill sets were instead pushed to the front of the line, and rightly so. European players in particular, who came in better developed in the fundamentals, began leaping ahead of athletic college kids, who were years away from being fully-fledged basketball players.

That isn't to say athletic players are no longer selected highly. The Phoenix Suns couldn't say no to Deandre Ayton, a smooth 7-foot athletic big man with a chiseled frame. Ayton, at the time, wasn't projected to become the type of defender he is now, but that didn't stop the Suns from selecting him over Luka Dončić. Fortunately for Phoenix, Ayton at least developed into a valuable and impactful two-way center, somewhat justifying their selection.

Marvin Bagley, selected right after Ayton, did not.

The projected players to get picked high in the 2023 draft have already been put through a filter, catering to the NBA's ever-changing demands.

Houston's Jarace Walker, an expeted lottery pick, collected 23 points, 21 rebounds, 10 blocks, and seven assists during his last two regular season games, showcasing his ability to produce in several key areas.

Cason Wallace from Kentucky, arguably the best defender in the entire draft, also netted over 11 points and four assists per game, while shooting just well enough from range (34.6%) and the free throw line (75.7%) to indicate further shooting upside.

Arkansas guard/wing Anthony Black also projects as a Mr. Do-Everything at the next level. His defense is currently ahead of his offense, but there's enough scoring production there (12.8 points) to justify a belief in further development, especially if he lands at a place that offers quality shooting coaching.

Cam Whitmore from Villanova also has significant two-way upside, even if he looks a few years away from being a polished player.

And, of course, Victor Wembanyama who we don't need to go into much. But that is part of the big appeal. Had Wembanyama just been an offensive player who paid no attention to protecting the rim, that probably would have forced teams to wonder what the upside would have been.

The focus on two-way production is only going to increase from here, especially if the Celtics win a title by using a rotation made up of players who aren't necessarily elite on either end, but can hold their own and be counted on to play 20-30 minutes in crucial playoff series.

It's just a matter of time before that ability changes from "nice to have" to "need to have".

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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