Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kawhi Leonard, Rockets, Celtics, Clippers)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on New Year’s Day.

Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard is a great prop target on Thursday. / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Happy New Year, NBA fans! 

After a massive all-day slate on New Year’s Eve, the NBA kicks off 2026 with five games, including a matchup between the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft (Cooper Flagg) and the No. 3 overall pick (VJ Edgecombe). 

It may be a new year, but my strategy in Peter’s Points remains the same, as we’ve gotten off to a great start this season, sitting at +9.79 units on Jan. 1. 

For tonight’s action, I’m eyeing a few picks, including a player prop for Los Angeles Clippers superstar Kawhi Leonard. 

Let’s dive into the breakdown for each of the plays as the 2025-26 NBA season rolls on. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 119-89 (+9.79 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1410-1326-27 (+42.95 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• 3-Team Moneyline Parlay (-133)
• Quentin Grimes OVER 9.5 Points (-108)
• Kawhi Leonard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-103)

3-Team Moneyline Parlay (-133)

• Houston Rockets Moneyline (-500)
• Boston Celtics Moneyline (-410)
• Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline (-575)

Why not start the year with a little moneyline parlay? Here’s why I’m backing these three big favorites to win on Thursday night. 

Houston Rockets Moneyline (-500)

After losing to the Los Angeles Clippers in late December, the Rockets have rattled off three wins in a row, beating Cleveland and the Los Angeles Lakers by double digits in the process.

While the Nets have the No. 5 net rating in the league over their last 10 games, they are still just 6-9 against the spread as home underdogs and are coming off a blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday. 

Brooklyn could be down Michael Porter Jr. (questionable) in this matchup, which would undoubtedly lower the ceiling of an already subpar offense.

The Nets’ defense has picked up as of late, but can it slow down a Houston team that is No. 3 in offensive rating, No. 2 in net rating and 11-7 against the spread (No. 3 in the NBA) on the road this season?

I’m not buying it. I’ll take Houston to get the job done on New Year’s Day. 

Boston Celtics Moneyline (-410)

The Celtics’ insane 2025-26 season continues with a cupcake matchup against the Kings on New Year’s Day.

Sacramento is down both Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine in this matchup, and it’s just 8-25 overall and 2-8 in its last 10 games. On top of that, the Kings 12-21 against the spread this season – the second-worst mark in the NBA.

So, bettors should look to Boston to cover in this game, as it has risen to No. 4 in the NBA in both offensive rating and net rating.

The C’s are defying all logic in what was supposed to be a gap year, and their offense should run circles around a Kings team that is 28th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Sacramento has been awful against teams over .500 this season (5-16), and I don’t see it keeping pace with Boston with both LaVine and Sabonis out. 

Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline (-575)

Can the Clippers extend their winning streak to six on Thursday night?

Los Angeles is a massive favorite at home – and for good reason – as the Utah Jazz have a loaded injury report that included Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen (both questionable). 

With Utah looking to keep its top-8 protected pick this season, could this be a stealth tank game for the Jazz? It sure would feel like it if George and Markkanen sit, and Utah is already awful on the road.

The Jazz are 4-9 straight up and 5-8 against the spread on the road, posting an average scoring margin of -11.8 points in those games.

The Clippers’ season-long numbers are bad – there’s no way around it – but they do rank seventh in the NBA in net rating over their last 10 games (+5.4). 

I’m willing to lay it with the Clippers, as Kawhi Leonard is on an all-time heater at the moment and should dominate the No. 29 defense in the NBA. 

Quentin Grimes OVER 9.5 Points (-108)

Philadelphia 76ers guard Quentin Grimes may be undervalued on Thursday night with his points prop set at 9.5, even though he’s averaging 14.7 points on 11.0 shots per game this season.

Grimes did fall short of his total in his last meeting with Dallas – one of his former teams – shooting just 2-of-9 from the field in that matchup. Still, the Sixers wing has cleared 9.5 points in 23 of his 29 appearances this season, including 11 of his 13 games with Joel Embiid in the lineup.

In fact, Grimes is still averaging 13.8 points per game in the 13 games he’s played with Embiid. So, I think he may be a little undervalued when he should have a sizable role off the bench for the 76ers tonight. 

Kawhi Leonard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-103)

Kawhi Leonard has been red hot as of late, averaging 29.8 points per game in December while shooting 49.0 percent from the field and 36.0 percent from 3. 

Now, Leonard is looking to carry that momentum into the New Year against a Utah team that is 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. I’m eyeing Kawhi from beyond the arc in this game, as he’s shooting 38.6 percent from deep this season and Utah ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent 3s made per game (15.3) and is 27th in opponent 3-point percentage.

The two-time NBA Finals MVP has made four or more 3-pointers in four of his last five games, and he attempted more than seven 3s per game in December, up from his season-long average of 6.6 attempts per game.

This is a great matchup for Kawhi to continue his hot scoring stretch for L.A.

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