76ers vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for New Year’s Day

Dallas has been a .500 team at home this season.

Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg is a great prop target on Thursday. / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The No. 1 overall pick and the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft face off on New Year’s Day in Dallas, making for a must-watch game.

Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks host VJ Edgecombe, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers in this matchup. Embiid, who has been in and out of the lineup with injuries this season, is listed as probable on Jan. 1. 

Dallas has not gotten off to a great start this season, but it has been serviceable at home, going 9-9 in 18 games. The Mavs are a much worse team on the road, and they are home underdogs in this matchup. 

As for the 76ers, Maxey has played at an All-NBA level which has thrust the team into a top-six spot in the East. 

Can the 76ers grab a road win to kick off the New Year?

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this battle between two playoff hopefuls this season. 

76ers vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• 76ers -2.5 (-105)
• Mavs +2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• 76ers: -135
• Mavs: +114

Total

• 231.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

76ers vs. Mavericks How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Jan. 1
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: American Airlines Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• 76ers record: 17-14
• Mavs record: 12-22

76ers vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

76ers Injury Report

• Joel Embiid – probable
• MarJon Beauchamp – doubtful
• Johni Broome – doubtful
• Trendon Watford – out
• Kelly Oubre Jr. – out

Mavs Injury Report

• Moussa Cisse – questionable
• Dante Exum – out
• Kyrie Irving – out
• Miles Kelly – doubtful
• Dereck Lively II – out

76ers vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Cooper Flagg OVER 4.5 Assists (-146)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I broke down why Flagg is worth a look to clear his assists prop against Philly: 

Cooper Flagg is averaging just over seven potential assists per game this season, and he’s turned that into 4.0 actual assists a night.

However, his assists per game have jumped to 5.7 over his last 10, and he has at least five dimes in five games in a row.

I think Flagg is worth a look as a playmaker on Thursday, especially against a Philadelphia team that is 20th in the NBA in opponent assists per game. 

Flagg got off to a slow start as a playmaker this season, but now that he’s back playing his normal position, he’s looked like an entirely different player. In December, the No. 1 overall pick averaged 23.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting 51.6 percent from the field.

I think he’s a great buy-low candidate in this prop market on New Year’s Day. 

76ers vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

Something has to give in this game, as these teams are two of the best in the NBA against the spread in this spot:

• Dallas is 9-2 against the spread as a home underdog.
• Philly is 6-1 against the spread when favored on the road.

I lean with taking the points in this matchup, as Dallas has been a much better team at American Airlines Center than it has been on the road, and the Mavs are 8-8 straight up when Anthony Davis plays this season.

The 76ers haven’t sustained the pace they set early in the 2025-26 season, and they’re about a league average team (16th in net rating at -0.1) over their last 10 games. 

The Mavericks are actually a couple spots below them during that stretch, but Dallas has posted a +1.4 average scoring margin in 11 games as a home dog this season. 

I’ll take the points with the Mavericks entering this game relatively healthy. 

Pick: Mavericks +2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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