How the New NBA Draft Lottery Rules Work: Info, Odds and More

In late-May, the NBA officially approved changes to the NBA Draft Lottery. The changes will massively alter how the regular season is played out, and how teams will come by the top picks in the NBA Draft.

For the first time ever, teams will be penalized for regular-season standing, and there are numerous other rules set to alter the draft as a whole.

Below, we’ll outline all the changes and how they’ll function moving forward:

The 3-2-1 Lottery

The NBA has deemed its new system the “3-2-1 Lottery,” as teams will have chances at either one, two or three lottery balls, each with a 2.7% chance at landing the top pick.

The lottery has been expanded

Where the former lottery was made up of 14 teams, there will now be 16, which includes the losers of the NBA Play-In Tournament. The loser of the No. 7 and 8 seeds will receive one lottery ball each — a 2.7% chance at the No. 1 pick — and the loser of the No. 9 and 10 matchup will receiver two lottery balls each, a 5.4% chance at No. 1.

Flattened odds

The odds at the NBA Draft lottery have again been flattened, with every team left out of the NBA’s postseason receiving three lottery balls (8.1% chance at No. 1) or two lottery balls. This is a drastic departure from the previous format, which saw a descending order and numerous pick floors.

The relegation zone

Far-and-away the most seismic change is the addition of the relegation zone, which will penalize the bottom-three teams in the league record-wise with lesser draft odds. The three teams than land in the relegation zone will lose one lottery ball each, moving to a 5.4% chance to land the top pick. This rule change is designed to incentivize winning in the regular season. The remaining seven non-postseason teams will have an equal 8.1% chance at No. 1.

Pick floors and restrictions

Where there were formerly pick floors, there is now only two different floors for all 16 teams. Teams in the relegation zone can only fall as far as No. 12, and the remaining 13 teams can only fall to No. 16.

Additionally, there will be new restrictions on a year-to-year basis. No team can own the No. 1 pick in two consecutive drafts, and no team can land within the top-five in three consecutive drafts. These will apply only to a team’s own pick and not picks traded for.

Finally, team’s will no longer be able to protect picks top-12 or top-15.

NBA Draft Lottery Odds:

Below is an illustration of the new NBA Draft Lottery odds, per the NBA.

For posterity: pic.twitter.com/nO3QG9Z7r3
— Derek Parker (@DParkOK) August 24, 2026

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