Too-Early-Rookie Of the Year Race: Wemby & Chet Are Going At It
We're just 10% or so into the regular season, but that doesn't seem to matter when it comes to Rookie Of the Year chatter.
Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren are headlining the race, so we need to discuss it.
But, first, a caveat: There are 70+ games left in the regular season. Whatever patterns we've identified so far can change, and dramatically so, in the span of the next six months.
Also, a second caveat: Stats are tremendously important, but due to the small sample size of the season, it's crucial to note that this piece puts a bit more emphasis on the eye test, and playstyle, than raw numbers.
Alright, with that out of the way, let's get this show on the road.
Both Holmgren and Wembanyama are tall and skinny, and due to their physical similarities, it's only natural for people to assume they share the same playstyle.
... They do not.
Wembanyama is far more of a hub within San Antonio's offense, where as Holmgren is more of a play finisher.
Wembanyama touches the ball, on average, 45.8 times per game, and has the ball in his possession for an average of 2.15 seconds.
During those possessions, Wembanyama is looking for scoring angles, and usually functions as the team's primary option.
The 7-foot-5 Frenchman does pass 23.9 times per game, but he's primarily being tasked with the responsibility of creating something out of nothing.
Holmgren touches the ball 57 times per game, and has the ball 2.06 seconds per touch. He, on the other hand, passes the ball 41.6 times per game, almost 20 more times per game than Wembanyama.
That's due to Holmgren playing almost entirely within the structure of the offense. He'll set a screen, pop out behind the 3-point line, and immediately initiate dribble hand-off action for his teammates, some of whom are currently on his level, or in the case of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, significantly better.
Wembanyama flat-out does not have a plethora of players around him who on the same level, and is thus looking at the rim more outside the flow of the offense.
(Mind you, this isn't an excuse on the part of Wembanyama, but rather information regarding their different roles.)
Where the two finally begin to look a bit the same is how they score off the help of their teammates.
Holmgren is assisted on over 76% of his shots, and Wembanyama a bit under 81%. Both are heavily reliant - so far - on the players around them to get them quality looks.
But we can't talk about shots, without talking about shot quality. This is an area that tells us a great deal of how opposing defenses defend certain players.
The more open shots, the less of a priority that player is for defenses.
Due the the Thunder being significantly deeper than the Spurs, Holmgren rarely finds himself as gobbled by opponents as Wembanyama.
Holmgren takes 2.8 shots per game that are considered wide open, whereas Wembanyama takes less than one per game.
Wembanyama takes a whopping 6.4 shots per game that are considered "tightly" defended, with Holmgren checking in at three per game.
In other words, Holmgren gets more quality looks.
So, let's take stock of their offensive profiles and shooting efficiency.
- Holmgren clearly benefits greatly from playing next to the teammates that he has. He's guarded less, which allows him more open shots, and has better players to target on passes. He's hitting a significantly higher percentage than Wembanyama, connecting on 57.5% overall, and a ridiculous 55.6% from the outside, which seems unsustainable.
- Wembanyama clearly is guarded more, with entire defenses adjusting to his movements, and the early efficiency has been pedestrian. He connects on 44.1% of his shots, and just 29.3% from range.
Okay, so now let's get into the inevitable debate.
Should Holmgren be penalized for playing with better players?
While it should matter in the overall context of the debate, he of course should not.
Holmgren is doing exactly what he's supposed to be doing. With less attention on him, he's making the absolute most of his opportunities.
He's draining open shots, he's utilizing the space he's being given, and he's passing the ball to teammates who can generate offense.
Him not being guarded as aggressively as Wembanyama certainly factors into how we gage their play, but it cannot be overemphasized just how well Holmgren is executing his role. In no way, shape, or form, should Holmgren have to lose points for being in a situation that's a few years ahead of Wembanyama's. That would be unacceptable.
Now, on the flip side of that argument, it's entirely fair to also note that Wembanyama is indeed being targeted in a way that Holmgren isn't, which means a higher burden, and worse odd of success.
Wembanyama shouldn't lose points for being less efficient than Holmgren due to the stronger challenge, as he simply isn't surrounded by players who can initiate actions, as Holmgren's teammates can. Fact of the matter is, Wembanyama has Tre Jones and power-forward-playing-point-guard Jeremy Sochan to set him up, and Holmgren has all of Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jalen Williams.
Let's switch it up and talk defense, which is harder to measure statistically, at least individually.
Both project as elite shot-blockers moving forward, and both have a keen sense of timing in their defensive rotations.
Except - and I apologize for being simplistic here - Wembanyama is simply taller, with a larger wingspan, and covers more ground.
Holmgren is already an outstanding interior defender, who looks comfortable switching out to smaller players on occasion.
Wembanyama is an otherworldly interior defender, who has opposing offenses trying to initiate actions as far away from him as humanly possible.
Only, he too can guard the perimeter, and maybe even more effectively than Holmgren due to quicker hips, larger strides, and an absurd ability to catch up to his opponent even if the player gets a step on him.
Whoever is trying to go at Wembanyama simply does not feel safe until the ball has gone through the basket, and that's not exactly how it's played out this season.
Holmgren gets bumped pretty regularly, and has an uncanny ability to somehow, despite being thrown off-balance, to stay vertical on his shot challenges. He'll be losing his balance, and still finds a way to jump straight up to contest shots.
Wembanyama, when he's bumped, can stand still on the ground, stick his arm in the air, and still challenge.
Remember the ease of which Holmgren scores, that I mentioned earlier? That's Wembanyama on the other end of the court. Aside from a few exceptions, Wembanyama is in total control, particularly when players such as OG Anunoby or Kyrie Irving goes at him.
Wembanyama's patience on block attempts is startling, and he will sacrifice a block for optimized defensive positioning as well, which you rarely see from teenage big men. Holmgren, too, is disciplined, but he will still look for the block, and does tend to relinquish positioning from time to time.
(That's perfectly normal, and remember: For a rookie, Holmgren is frankly exceptional defensively.)
But that speaks to Wembanyama's favor. Here is the 7-foot-1 Holmgren, a center who is already formidable defensively, and the competition isn't even close.
We can also, once again mention teammates as a component here. The Spurs are big, with Sochan and Zach Collins playing significant minutes, but the Thunder are deeper, and have more two-way players, including rookie guard Cason Wallace, who might already be better defensively than any Spurs guard on the roster.
If you're keeping score at home, it's a Holmgren win offensively and a Wembanyama win defensively.
But of course, it's not that simplistic. Nor should it be.
Teammates, age, system, role, and a myriad of other elements play a role when determining who is the best player, and most worthy of Rookie Of the Year.
If Holmgren sustains a TS% of over 71, okay, it's game over. But that seems... let's say optimistic.
Odds are Holmgren will drop off a bit efficiency-wise, and Wembanyama will eventually be better at finding his spots, leveling them out offensively.
If so, that's game over in favor of Wembanyama.
But here's the best part. We have no clue what will happen. None. It's all projections and guesswork.
With 70+ games left in the regular season, we're in for a heck of a ride, and that's frankly the best place to be.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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