Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys Week 3 who wins and why

A comparison of the position groups facing off in Sunday's Bears and Cowboys game at Soldier Field with a prediction on the final score.
Gene Chamberlain|
Dak Prescott looks for a receiver against the Bears in the teams' last matchup, in 2022.
Dak Prescott looks for a receiver against the Bears in the teams' last matchup, in 2022. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

In this story:

Chicago Bears

A little over three weeks ago, no one would have expected this Sunday's Bears and Cowboys game at Soldier Field to look like a shootout or track meet.

Dallas and defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus had Micah Parson to help shut down opponents or at least hold down opponents to help their high-scoring offense.

The Bears' hopes early in the season were pinned to Dennis Allen's defense and a good group of athletes like Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and T.J. Edwards keeping games close while Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and the offense built momentum.

My how things have changed.

To hear some analysts, only the goal line will be stopping ball carriers and receivers in this one. It's a game that should be on a 400-meter oval, not a football field.

"It's going to be one of those games where we have to be on our technique, because this is a group that can hurt you in a hurry," Bears coach Ben Johnson said, buying into the narrative.

They can really hurt you when a big chunk of the defense is missing and the last opponent scored 52 points.

Without Parsons, the Cowboys haven't had much of a pass rush and their two outstanding cornerbacks are currently 50% shy of a matching set, with DaRon Bland out injured.

The Bears have allowed 79 points in two games with a crippled defense. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze and their passing game are gaining steam.

It's the Bears and Cowboys offenses at Soldier Field Sunday in Week 3 of the NFL season, as Ben Johnson keeps looking for that first win. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Cowboys run defense

Maybe the most deceiving stat in this game is the Bears rank 12th in rushing. They haven't run consistently and their yardage total is boosted by Caleb Williams' scrambling, as the NFL's fourth-ranked running QB. D'Andre Swift has had a few big gains but not steady yardage. Meanwhile, Dallas added Kenny Clark and anticipated better run defense, but still ranks 23rd against the run. Dallas linebackers have been a problem and so has the run support from the secondary. The Bears need Kyle Monangai and/or Roschon Johnson to play roles in this one to take advantage of a Dallas weakness. No Edge

Bears passing vs. Cowboys pass defense

Without Bland, with former Bears undrafted players Jack Sanborn and Reddy Steward playing key roles, the Cowboys are susceptible to all types of receivers, from tight ends to slots to downfield threats. Provided the Bears can pass block well enough against a poor pass rush and new edge Jadeveon Clowney, and Caleb Williams can progress like from Week 1 to Week 2, there is a chance for Chicago to pile up points through the air. Edge to Bears

Cowboys running vs. Bears run defense

Javonte Williams is running hard at 4.6 yards a carry and the line is moving back the pile, supplying a complement to the explosive passing attack. The dirty little secret about the Bears defense has been their inability to stop the run. The passing of Detroit made them look bad but the inability to improve over last year against the run is a real issue. They're 28th in yards allowed per carry at 5.3 and 27th overall after they were 28th overall last year. Except, now they're having problems and Grady Jarrett and Andrew Billings are playing at defensive tackle. Edge to Cowboys

Cowboys passing vs. Bears pass defense

The high-powered Dallas passing game is actually a bit of a myth as it turns out. Prescott's passer rating is worse (88.8) than Williams (89.1) and he's averaging a pathetic 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Still, he has CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as targets and burner KaVontae Turpin for screens and end arounds. Dallas has struggled protecting the passer, but the Bears haven't had much of a pass rush, anyway, and their secondary has been ravaged by injuries. In theory, Dallas should win this easily. In reality, upon closer inspection, it looks much closer. No edge

Special teams

It's rare for Bears special teams to face a daunting task as they've been formidable themselves over the years. However, Dallas has a kicker with a cannon leg in Brandon Aubrey, a steady punter in Bryan Anger and explosive returning from Turpin. The Bears haven't been able to get their return game on track. Devin Duvernay is mired at 8.8 yards a punt return and Cairo Santos had another poor kickoff last week. There's still suspicion about Bears punt coverage. Edge Cowboys

Coaching

Ben Johnson didn't make some of the gaffes in strategy in Week 2 that he did in Week 1, but the back-to-back QB sneaks seemed a bit unlike his style and definitely ineffective. Dennis Allen loves to gamble and blitz and now he might have to do it because they're going to have trouble covering without three key starters. When you have to do something, it's less of a surprise. Matt Eberflus might know defense, but his defense doesn't know success yet this year or much recently in Soldier Field. No Edge

Intangibles

Expect to hear the usual smattering of Dallas support at a Chicago game because fans of America's Team are everywhere. Still, this crowd will be loud and anti-Eberflus and should rock the Dallas offense. It can't hurt the penalty-prone Bears to have the crowd on their side. Dallas ranks only two slots below the Bears in penalties so a little bit of noise could go a long way toward being disruptive. Edge to Bears

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Bears 26

With all of the problems both teams have, the one really consistent force in this game has been Dallas' running game. Combined with the lack of one by the Bears, the Cowboys will control play on the ground when they really need it.

Dallas is a 1 1/2-point favorite now after originally being underdogs by that much and should be favored with its more consistent offense.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.